1. USFWS’ Arctic Strategy: Managing Fish and Managing Fish and Wildlife Populations in a Changing Landscape SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting October 28-30, 2008 USFWS’ Arctic Strategy: Managing Fish and Managing Fish and Wildlife Populations in a Changing Landscape SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting October 28-30, 2008 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

2. FWS and Climate Change Science Challenge – Translating model projections into predictions of effects on trust resources Management Challenge –Managing for change –No longer business (conservation, protection, enhancement) as usual Our mission is working with others to conserve, protect, and enhance fish, wildlife, and plants and their habitats for the continuing benefit of the American people.

3. FWS and Climate Change Strategic Plan – Responding to Climate Change –Adaptation, Mitigation and Education 5-Year Action Plan – toward implementing the Strategic Plan National Fish and Wildlife Adaptation Strategy FY09-10 Action Items – building capacity for responding to climate change –Conservation planning and design, modeling, research and monitoring

4. Integration with SEARCH Responding to Change Help identify useful predictive information and products: Identify physical processes relevant to habitat availability and suitability Identify appropriate modeling scales Identify key areas of uncertainty

5. Lacustrine Marsh (Carex) Moist Sedge- Shrub Shallow Lake (< 1.5 m)

6. TemperaturePrecipitation Coastal  Erosion  Storm frequency Sea-level rise Permafrost  Thermokarst  Active layer Riverine Waters Deep Lake (> 1.5m) Shallow Lake (< 1.5 m) Lacustrine Marsh (Arctophila) Lacustrine Marsh (Carex) Coastal Barrens – Salt-killed Coastal Wet Sedge Coastal Barrens – Tidal/Deltaic Coastal Water – Lagoon Tussock Tundra Wet Sedge Moist Sedge- Shrub Low Birch- Willow Shrub Shrubby Tussock Tundra Riverine Tall Alder-Willow Shrub Riverine Sedge, Low/Dwarf Shrub Riverine Barrens Climate Habitat Availability/ Suitability Physical Processes FreshwaterTerrestrialMarine Solar Radiation BIRDS -- Summer Hydrologic Water Balance Surface storage

7. TemperaturePrecipitation Coastal  Erosion  Storm frequency Sea-level rise Permafrost  Thermokarst  Active layer Riverine Waters Deep Lake (> 1.5m) Shallow Lake (< 1.5 m) Lacustrine Marsh (Arctophila) Lacustrine Marsh (Carex) Coastal Barrens – Salt-killed Coastal Wet Sedge Coastal Barrens – Tidal/Deltaic Coastal Water – Lagoon Tussock Tundra Wet Sedge Moist Sedge- Shrub Low Birch- Willow Shrub Shrubby Tussock Tundra Riverine Tall Alder-Willow Shrub Riverine Sedge, Low/Dwarf Shrub Riverine Barrens Climate Habitat Availability/ Suitability Physical Processes FreshwaterTerrestrialMarine Solar Radiation BIRDS -- Summer Hydrologic Water Balance Surface storage

8. Arctic Strategy Goals and Objectives Focus on Terrestrial Arctic Landscape Identify Information Gaps –Collect critical data Identify Priority Species Develop Models –Impacts to Arctic fish and wildlife –Decision support tools for management Collaborate and build partnerships Focus on Terrestrial Arctic Landscape Identify Information Gaps –Collect critical data Identify Priority Species Develop Models –Impacts to Arctic fish and wildlife –Decision support tools for management Collaborate and build partnerships

9. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change (WildREACH) Workshop in Fairbanks: 17-18 November 2008

10. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change Advance development of models that predict changes in habitat availability and suitability.

11. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change Identify critical research, modeling, and synthesis activities: –Species attributes that are expected to be sensitive indicators of predicted habitat change. –Areas of uncertainty in physical and chemical process models that most impede our ability to predict the response of fish, wildlife, and their habitats.

13. WildREACH Workshop Structure Plenary presentations by “Consulting Specialists” in climate, permafrost, hydrology, plant community ecology, and ecological modeling will present summaries of observational and modeling results.

14. WarmerShorter season Changing conditions in winter: Sep - May Changes in communities; Early plant emergence Plants Early den emergence Juv. mortality Loss of shelter natal nests/dens  Insulation Energetic balancepositivenegative Snow  depth,  density,  Icing events  Precipitation Access to food  H1H2H3H4 C1 Fewer mammalsMore mammals C2C4 Carnivores H1H2H3H4 C1C2C4 Herbivores

15. WildREACH Workshop Structure Working Groups (birds, fish, and mammals) will take part in breakout sessions to identify potential indicator species, develop conceptual models for climate influences on species groups, and identify critical research/modeling data gaps.

16. WildREACH Workshop Structure Consulting Specialists will remain present to interact informally with fish and wildlife biologists in breakout sessions.

17. WildREACH Workshop Product Peer-reviewed report articulating the most urgent information needs and tasks needed to build capacity to predict climate-related impacts to fish and wildlife populations in the Arctic.

18. Fish and Wildlife Service Trust Resources Habitat Change Arctic Strategy Partnerships Physical and Chemical Processes Resource Management Agencies: BLM, NPS, ADFG, NSB, MMS Research Community: USGS, NSSI, NSF, NGOs, UAF, SEARCH

19. Arctic Strategy Partnerships Department of Interior Initiatives –WILDCAST (USGS/NPS) –Arctic Network Inventory and Monitoring Program (NPS) –North Slope Science Initiative (multi-agency)

20. Integration with SEARCH Observing Change Agency biological monitoring and inventory programs (e.g., species composition and distribution) can feed data into SEARCH framework.

21. Integration with SEARCH Understanding Change Contribute to development of model frameworks that link landscape changes to ecosystem attributes (fish and wildlife population, phenology, migration patterns).

22. Integration with SEARCH Responding to Change Help identify useful predictive information and products: Identify physical processes relevant to habitat availability and suitability Identify appropriate modeling scales Identify key areas of uncertainty