© 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved. North Country Access Improvements Stakeholder Advisory Committee Meeting No. 6 October 6, 2015

 Economic Assessment o Model overview o Assumptions o Findings o Discussion & Next Steps Agenda

MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ROUTE 11 CANTON-POTSDAM BYPASS Chris Judson, Economic Impact Analysis Task Leader

Study Area

 Improve Roadway Operations and Freight Mobility  Support Economic Development: Evaluate the economic development potential and benefits of the proposed alternatives to inform the decision-making process.  Improve Safety and Quality of Life: Develop roadway alternatives that avoid conflicts with other transportation modes and roadway users in village centers Purpose of Study

TranSight Structure & Modeling Approach HDR

REMI Model Overview Employment 15 yr30 yr Start Year

Design Costs  Professional, scientific, and technical services - 54 o Spread evenly over and by regional value added Small impact to St. Lawrence County Survey & Stake Out  Detailed Industry Sales > Architectural, engineering, and related services o Modeled within St. LC, and spread evenly over two year period Planning 2 Lane Arterial Scenario

Right of Way  Transfer Payments o 2016, purchase land for environmental mitigation Site clearing and preparation o Spread over two years, exogenous final demand construction in St. LC Mobilization  Government Spending o Spread over three years Construction 2 Lane Arterial Scenario

Primary Construction Activity  Includes: Roadway, Grade Separation Without Interchange, Structure Over Water, and Maintenance of Traffic o Detailed Industry Sales > Highways, Bridges Streets Spread evenly over between , Construction 2 Lane Arterial Scenario

2 Lane Arterial Planning & Construction Results

2 Lane Arterial Planning & Construction Results – Percent Change From Baseline

Design Costs  Professional, scientific, and technical services - 54 o Spread evenly over and by regional value added Small direct local impact to St. Lawrence County Survey & Stake Out  Detailed Industry Sales > Architectural, engineering, and related services o Modeled within St. LC, and spread evenly over two year period Planning 4 Lane Arterial Scenario

Right of Way  Transfer Payments o 2016, purchase land for environmental mitigation Site clearing and preparation o Spread over two years, exogenous final demand construction in St. LC Mobilization  Government Spending o Spread over three years Construction 4 Lane Arterial Scenario

Primary Construction Activity  Includes: Roadway, Grade Separation Without Interchange, Structure Over Water, and Maintenance of Traffic o Detailed Industry Sales > Highways, Bridges Streets Spread evenly over between Construction 4 Lane Arterial Scenario

4 Lane Arterial Planning & Construction Results

4 Lane Arterial Planning & Construction Results – Percent Change From Baseline

 2020, 2034, 2049 .011% decrease in transportation and accessibility costs for 2 Lane .0116% decrease in transportation and accessibility costs for 4 lane o Just over a 5% increase in cost savings Network Benefits

Network Benefits Results – 2 Lane Low Scenario

Network Benefits Results – 2 Lane Low Scenario, Percent Change from Baseline

Network Benefits Results – 2 Lane High Scenario

Network Benefits Results – 2 Lane High Scenario, Percent Change from Baseline

Network Benefits Results – 4 Lane Low Scenario

Network Benefits Results – 4 Lane Low Scenario, Percent Change from Baseline

Network Benefits Results – 4 Lane High Scenario

Network Benefits Results – 4 Lane High Scenario, Percent Change from Baseline

 NAICS Chemical Manufacturing o Exports from Quebec to New York Over $ 317 million in 2014 Average of over $ 345 million between o Average annual compensation for industry in St. Lawrence county: $ 101,805 dollars Business Attraction – Chemical Manufacturing

Chemical Manufacturing – High Case $50 M in 2020, $150 M by 2034

Chemical Manufacturing – Low Case $5 M in 2020, $15 M by 2034

© 2014 HDR Architecture, Inc., all rights reserved. © 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved.