1 Forecasting Traffic for a Start-Up Toll Road 12 th TRB National Transportation Planning Application Conference May 18, 2009 David Schellinger, P.E. Vice President – Modeling / Toll Feasibility Systra Mobility

Challenges to Forecasting Traffic – The Corridor – The Project & Growth Trends / Unique Conditions Modeling Methodology – Role of Regional Model – Customized Toll Diversion Process Results – Early Trends / Issues – Areas for Improvements 2 Presentation Overview

PROJECT CORRIDOR 3 Central Texas Turnpike System  Northwest Elements  SH 45 North  Loop 1  SH 130  System Length – 65 Miles  SH 130 – 49 Miles  Northwest Elements – 16 Miles

4 Segment 1 IH 35 – US 79 Segment 2 US 79 – US 290 Segment 3 US 290 – SH 71 Segment 4 SH 71 – US 183 Opened Early 11/2006 Opened Early 12/2006 Opened On Time 9/2007 Opened Late 5/2008 SH 130 ELEMENT  “Closed” System  4 Segments  4 Mainline Plazas  15 Ramp Plazas

Extremely High Growth Region Limited North-South Limited Access Facilities High Percentage of Truck Traffic First Toll Road Project in Region Unknown Values of Time Toll Bias and Emerging Payment Methods Greenfield Project Largely Undeveloped Corridor Background Network Improvements 5 FORECASTING CHALLENGES

Adopt Regional Model – With Enhancements – Additional Detail / Zonal Disaggregation Retain Existing Procedures – Trip Generation – Trip Distribution – Mode Choice Utilize Advanced Highway Assignment Process – Reflect Travel Conditions by Time of Day & Market Segment – Provide Robust Toll Diversion Process 6 MODELING APPROACH

7 CAMPO REGIONAL MODEL (2000)

Utilizes Approved MPO Model – Facilitates Agency Approval Consistent Platform for Multiple Projects Sensitive to Availability of Competing Services/Policies – Transit Options – Land Use Policies Facilitates the Analysis of Projects Advancing Through Feasibility Levels 8 FORECASTING APPROACH

2002 Investment Grade Study – Basis of Project Financing – Available Data – Late 1990s – Significant Growth Distributed West of I Investment Grade Study – Remarketing Portion of Debt – Available Data – Early Census Results – More Growth Distributed East of I-35 9 FORECAST SETS DEVELOPED FOR PROJECT

10 PAST PRACTICE / EMERGING NEEDS

Complex Tolling Policies – Variation by Payment Type – Variation by Frequency – Variation by Agency / Operator Use Restrictions – Restrictions by Payment Method – Restrictions by Vehicle Type Variation in Pricing – Time of Day Pricing (Peak/Off-Peak/Weekend) – Congestion Pricing 11 EMERGING TOLL POLICY REQUIREMENTS

Variation by Payment Type – Cash – Transponder – Video Tolling Variation by Frequency – Commuter / Frequent Use Discount Plans – Restricted by Payment Method Variation by Agency / Operator – Multiple Agencies / Payment Policies 12 POTENTIAL TOLLING POLICIES

Restrictions by Payment Method – ETC Only Transponder Only Transponder & Video Billing Restrictions by Vehicle Type – Auto Use General Use HOT Lane – Truck Use Exclusive Truck Toll Roads 13 TOLL FACILITY USE RESTRICTIONS

Time-of-Day Pricing – Peak/Off-Peak Rates Linked to Transponder Usage – Weekend Surcharges / Discounts Congestion Pricing – Pricing Based on Facility Usage – Pricing Based on Conditions of Competing Non- Tolled Roadways 14 VARIATION IN PRICING

Diversion Sensitive to Traveler Characteristics – Income – Trip Purpose Traveler Biases – Dislike Toll Roads – Favor Electronic Toll Collection Market Segmentation – Travelers Acceptance of New Tolling Mechanisms 15 OTHER ISSUES INFLUENCING DIVERSION

Toll Choice within Mode Choice – Production-Attraction Methods provide mechanism to relate traveler characteristics such as income – Responsive to policies that will alter mode usage (SOV vs. HOV) Toll Choice within Assignment – Capable of addressing wide range of toll conditions – Internally consistent results – Capable of forecasting dynamic pricing options 16 POTENTIAL DIVERSION FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

TECHNICAL ISSUES 17 NEEDS LIMITATIONS TOOLS PROCESS

Choice Options: Toll Choice as Part of Mode Choice Model Toll Choice via a Route Choice Model Desired Feature Simultaneous Choice and Assignment ensures consistency of results 18 CHOICE – BASED PROCEDURES

19 EXTERNAL ROUTINE CONSISTENCY ISSUE Mode Choice Highway Assignment Route Choice Highway Assignment  Under Either Method Feedback is Required  Consistency not Assured  Convergence Difficult under Certain Conditions Mode Choice

20 PATH CONSISTENCY ISSUES $0.50 $1.00$0.50 Toll Road Choice Skim is $1.00 Preload or Favored Path Implies $2.00 Toll Trips May be Assigned to Non-toll Paths A B

POTENTIAL SOLUTION ?? 21 HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT ROUTINE ROUTE CHOICE SUBMODEL: PURPOSE/VEHICLE TYPE /PAYMENT TYPE ROUTE CHOICE SUBMODEL: PURPOSE/VEHICLE TYPE /PAYMENT TYPE Highway Assignment Route Choice SEQUENTIAL PROCESS“EMBEDDED” ROUTE CHOICE MODEL

Assumes Toll Options Will not Impact the Selection of Travel Modes. Allows for the Development of Choice Functions and Parameters Specific to Auto Modes. Allows for Treatment by Market Segments, Similar to Mode Choice 22 EMBEDDED ROUTE CHOICE MODEL

23 TOLL DIVERSION MODELING USING CUBE VOYAGER

Voyager Highway Assignment Capabilities  Choice-Based Procedures Embedded within Assignment Process  Complex Modeling of Costs by Payment Type  Extensive Segmentation Possible  Integrate Traveler Characteristics (such as Income Levels)  Dynamic Toll Estimation 24 BENEFITS OF VOYAGER FOR MODELING DIVERSION

Enhanced Highway Assignment Process Multiple “Time-of-Day” assignments Permits varying toll rates / usage options Enhanced estimation of traffic delays Customized toll diversion procedure Embedded Route Choice Submodels sensitive to payment methods and traveler characteristics. Trip purposes have individual Values of Time Permits separate treatment for cash and ETC Patrons Permits separate treatment by vehicle type (SOV,HOV, Truck) Dynamic Pricing Analysis Voyager or Voyager/CUBE Avenue Options 25 ADVANCED TOLL DIVERSION MODELING

Diversion for Some Purposes is a function of Income Requires knowledge of “home” zone income Solution: Partition Purpose into Production  Attraction & Attraction  Production Movements Utilize “Production” Zone to Reference Zonal Income Values. 26 TRAVELER CHARACTERISTICS

27 TOLL DIVERSION MODEL STRUCTURE

TOLL DIVERSION MODEL PARAMETERS 28

TOLL SHARES – HBW PURPOSE ($2.00 TOLL) 29

TOLL SHARE VS. TIME SAVINGS 30 Minimal time paths biased towards “NonToll” Choice

TOLL SHARE VS. COST 31 Minimal cost paths biased towards “Toll” Choice (assumed reliability)

CHOICE FUNCTIONS BY TIME/COST CONDITIONS 32

Comparison to 2005 Update Forecasts Observed Results for 2008 Observed Traffic Reflect Economic Conditions Areas for Improvement 33 INITIAL RESULTS

SH 130 ESTIMATED AND OBSERVED TRANSACTIONS

TRANSACTION COMPARISON BY SEGMENT

PERCENTAGE OF TRANSACTIONS FOR MAINLINE PLAZAS (AM PEAK)

PERCENTAGE OF TRANSACTIONS FOR RAMP PLAZAS (AM PEAK)

PERCENTAGE OF TRANSACTIONS FOR MAINLINE PLAZAS (PM PEAK)

PERCENTAGE OF TRANSACTIONS FOR RAMP PLAZAS (PM PEAK)

AVERAGE AXLES PER TRUCK BY MAINLINE PLAZA

TRUCK PERCENTAGE BY MAINLINE PLAZA

QUESTIONS? 42