1. June 15, 2010 For the Missoula Metropolitan Planning Organization Travel Modeling 101 1

2. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Opening the Black Box 2

3. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement The Four Steps Transportation Supply Transportation Demand How many trips? Where will they go? What mode? What route? 3 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Roadway / Transit Results Reports Transportation Networks Traffic Analysis Zone and Data Feedback

4. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Outputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters Trips by Mode Traffic Volumes Congested Speeds Transit Volumes Bike / Ped Volumes Summary Information 4

5. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Roadway Networks – Contains roadway characteristics Speed Limit Number of Lanes Roadway Type (Freeway, arterial, etc.) Area Type (CBD, Urban, Suburban, Rural) Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters 5

6. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Transit networks – Route locations – Service frequency – Park and rides Non-motorized networks – Bike/Ped facilities – Based on the roadway network (sidewalk availability) – Also includes off-street paths Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters 6

7. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Identifies demand for travel Household data – Required: Total Housholds – Optional: Average household size Median household income Employment data – By Type Retail Service Basic/Industrial Optional: – Education – Health Care – Leisure/Recreation Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters 7

8. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Identify travel to/from the region Identify travel through the region Based on data from MDT Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters 8

9. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Unique locations – Not well represented by employment data – University of Montanna Generate trips based on faculty, staff, and enrollment Allocate trip-ends based on address data Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters 9

10. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Represent the way people behave – How many trips are made? – How far will people travel? – What impacts decisions about travel mode? – How does congestion impact travel? Source Data Required – Mostly borrowed from other areas – Local data wherever possible – Calibrated & validated to counts Model Inputs and Outputs Inputs Transportation Networks Socioeconomic Data External Data Special Generators Model Parameters 10

11. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Information about each trip – Start/end – Time of day – Mode of travel – Purpose of trip – Trip time and distance Model Inputs and Outputs Outputs Trips by Mode Traffic Volumes Congested Speeds Transit Volumes Bike / Ped Volumes Summary Information 11

12. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement By Time of Day – Daily – AM & PM Peak Hour (less accuracy) Turn Movements – Can be estimated with assistance of base-year counts Congested speed based on volume Model Inputs and Outputs Outputs Trips by Mode Traffic Volumes Congested Speeds Transit Volumes Bike / Ped Volumes Summary Information 12

13. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Transit – By Time of Day Peak and Off-Peak Daily sum – By route or route group Route-level data is less accurate Bike / Pedestrian – Short trip demand is the best tool for bike and pedestrian planning Model Inputs and Outputs Outputs Trips by Mode Traffic Volumes Congested Speeds Transit Volumes Bike / Ped Volumes Summary Information 13

14. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Performance Report – Detailed summary of model results – Useful for planners and engineers Planning Tools – Maps and charts – Results presented for easy understanding VMT, VHT, Delay Level of Service Trip Lengths Trip Patterns Model Inputs and Outputs Outputs Trips by Mode Traffic Volumes Congested Speeds Transit Volumes Bike / Ped Volumes Summary Information 14

15. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement The model is not a “Crystal Ball” – The model is a tool that can aid in the decision making process – Evaluate results with a bit of skepticism The model is a way of organizing your assumptions Model Inputs and Outputs 15

16. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Roadway Improvement – Complete Project Description Project Extents New Configuration details – lanes, speed limit, bike/ped facilities, facility type Land Use / Development Scenario – Number of Units Households, employment (or square footage) – Access Details Where will the development take access to the roadway system – Traffic Studies ITE-based traffic studies are helpful in evaluating a project Summary: Model Run Data Needs 16

17. 17 Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement EXAMPLE MODEL OUTPUT Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Enhancement 17

18. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement The model can estimate level of service to help identify problem areas. Model Inputs and Outputs 18

19. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Today Household And Employment Growth 19

20. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Future Household And Employment Growth 20

21. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Today Travel Patterns 21

22. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Future Travel Patterns 22

23. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement 2010 Roadway Level of Service PM Peak Hour Conditions – Uncongested – Congesting – Congested Thicker lines indicate higher volume

24. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Example: Madison Street Bridge Closure – Traffic decrease – Traffic Increase 24 Traffic Difference

25. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Track vehicles that use a link – Example: traffic using the Madison Street bridge Track trips to and from a particular zone 25 Select Link/Zone Analysis

26. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Home-end stop activity Non-home stop activity Transfers Transit Ridership – Directional from home to work/school 26 Transit Activity Map Note: UM routes are shown at a smaller scale

27. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Gauge potential bicycle facility demand 3-6 mile trips 1-3 mile trips 0-1 mile trips (different scale) 27 Short Trips

28. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Example: Madison Street Bridge Closure – Traffic decrease – Traffic Increase Diverted Volumes shown in thousands 28 Traffic Difference

29. 29 Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement MODEL STEPS Bringing the Model Up to Date

30. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement How Many Trips? Keep track of more trip purposes Better locate trips – Use population & income details – Track university trips Include all trips – Walk, – Bike, – Transit, – Auto, – … Trip Generation 30

31. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Where Will They Go? Match trips from home to – Work, Shopping, Appointments, School, Recreation, etc… Match trips between – Work, shop, appointment, etc. Calibrate a gravity model based on local data Trip Distribution The Gravity concept can be used to model travel! 31

32. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement What Mode? This will be a new model component! Choose between: – Drive, – Carpool, – Walk, – Bicycle, – Transit Mode Choice Can I get a ride? Is it close enough to bike? How much $ is parking? How about the bus? 32

33. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement What Route? Find the best route from A to B Avoid congestion – Especially in the peak travel times – Use Equilibrium (capacity constrained) assignment Mode Choice 33

34. 34 Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement MODEL VALIDATION Testing the Model

35. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement How does the model work for today – Statistics R-Squared % RMSE Volume / Count Ratio Etc… – Screenlines – Corridor Review – Highest Errors Matching Counts 35

36. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement Dynamic Validation – Observe how the model reacts changes Test big and small changes Test the base and forecast year – Do results make sense? Testing Sensitivity 36

37. 37 Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement TRAVEL MODEL Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Enhancement 37 ’S &

38. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement – Evaluate base, interim, and forecast year datasets – Consider testing large development proposals (e.g., over 200 households or employees) Use the model’s trip distribution to compare to traffic study assumptions Cross-check development model runs with ITE-based traffic studies – Use the model to test very small developments – Test unreasonable changes to the jobs/housing balance Testing Demand Changes

39. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement D – Test large and medium-scale capacity changes – Test different roadway alternatives – Test a comprehensive roadway plan – consider forecast conditions 39 Testing Roadway Changes — Test scenarios that do not impact system capacity — Try to model very small capacity or speed changes

40. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement – Focus on potential non-motorized demand E.g., 1, 3, and 6 mile trip bandwidths Identify good places for infrastructure improvements – Consider non-motorized model results to be a rough estimate The model is only one tool to aid in analysis – Expect detailed numbers YES: “There is a high demand for a new bike lane in this corridor” NO: “This new bike lane will result in X new bike trips” 40 Non-motorized Results

41. Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement – Evaluate major system adjustments – Test large route changes – Focus on a system-wide results – Test fine tuning of route alignments – Expect detailed forecasts by transit route or transit stop This information is available, but must be interpreted carefully by a transit professional 41 Transit Results

42. 42 Missoula MPO Travel Demand Model Evaluation and Enhancement THANK YOU!