By: David R

NERDS!!!!

#NotANerd #OTTHAC16

By: David R

Current Research (with S. Mills & M. Schuckers) Build Models for predicting if a player plays a certain number of games. Use data from the more recent drafts to improve draft pick charts, like Schuckers has previously done, which uses historical player data.

Summary of the Data (1998 to CAEURUSCUSOT CDFG Usual Data issues like: Misspelled names Missing values and inconsistencies Duplicate entries from players who re-enter the draft

@1davidrwilson

Draft YearGP_Percntg

@1davidrwilson What happened in 2002? The largest number of Non North Americans were drafted. 123 Non North Americans vs. 109 Canadians drafted IIHF did a study in 2006, based on European players playing in NA between Of the 621 players, 388 were considered Marginal to below average and 133 never played an NHL game. So, what happened in 2005? The LOCK-OUT (or Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes) Draft. Switched from 9 Rounds to 7. Major shift in the number of Non North Americans drafted. Only 58 Non North Americans drafted out of 230. This trend of less Non North Americans has continued since.

@1davidrwilson Other than your beer league buddies, nobody cares if you play 1 NHL Game. The real goal is to get to 160. Why? The NEW and improved NHL pension plan. In 1986, the league switched from a Defined Benefit Pension to a Defined Contribution. After the lockout, the New CBA, did the unthinkable and switched back to a Defined Benefit. “NHL players were eligible to earn a maximum of $50,000 (all currency U.S.) a year in 2012 after playing at least 160 games” Globe and Mail 2013

@1davidrwilson Draft Year GP_Percntg

@1davidrwilson Prediction on 2010 Draft (Taylor Hall & Tyler Seguin draft year): 23.9% Prediction on 2011 Draft (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins draft year): 19.2% 2015 Draft? Between 15.4% and 23.1%

@1davidrwilson Consider Individual Players reaching 160+ Draft Years (1998 to 2011 – NO GOALIES) Variables to consider putting in the model: Career GP  Response Variable = Average GP Career TOI Average TOI Career Points Position Overall Age Interactions

@1davidrwilson MethodError Rate Predicted Error Rate GLM (Poisson) Neural Net SVM

@1davidrwilson

MethodError Rate Predicted Error Rate GLM (Poisson) Neural Net SVM LO (Tree) LO (Adjustment) SVM (Tree)

@1davidrwilson Sens & Leafs 2012 & 2013 Draftees along with some 2014 Drafted players. ‘Will definitely’ achieve 160+ Games Played: Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Morgan Rielly, Aaron Ekblad Honorable Mentions: Viktor Arvidsson (112, 4th Round) – 18% Likely Leon Draisaitl (3, 1st Round) – 40% Likely David Pastrnak (25, 1st Round) – 61% Likely

@1davidrwilson Next Steps in my Research: Finalise the 160+ Games Played Model Develop a new value pick chart (previously created by Schuckers), broken down by position, for establishing the value of a given selection. These values will be analyzed and adjusted based on players first seven years after they’ve been drafted. For example, from the proposed value pick chart if the Senators, wanted to trade their st Round, 18 th Overall draft pick, what should they have received in return that is of equal value? If they’re considering a Defenseman, how does this value compare with a Forward or Centre?

@1davidrwilson Thank-you