An Environmental Management Support System (EMSS) for South East Queensland catchments

Purpose of the EMSS To provide stakeholders with a synoptic (but dynamic) view of the runoff and pollutant fluxes across the SEQ region, and how these might be altered by particular management actions For example: - Change landuse pattern- Modify point source inputs - Establish riparian buffers- Establish dams, modify releases - Implement BMP’s- Install trains of SQIDS

Anticipated users of the EMSS State Government Departments … policy and regulatory role Local Government authorities … planning and dev. approval role Industry groups … assessing BMP Community groups … setting expectations Educators … awareness raising

Different running modes for the EMSS Power user Calibrates and tests models Scientists Consultants Mid level user Sets up and runs scenarios Consultants Managers Basic user Views results of scenarios Managers Community

Catchment model Storage model Routing model Bay dynamics Tidal waterways Point sources Elements of the EMSS Extractions

Event runoff Baseflow Rainfall Time 5 0 Runoff (mm) + = Pollutant Load Event Mean Concentration X Dry Weather Concentration X

Bribie Island Glasshouse Mountains Caboolture Moreton Bay Brisbane Gold Coast Noosa Lake Wivenhoe Lake Samsonvale Mount Warning Ipswich Toowoomba Currumbin Lake Somerset The south-east Queensland region

Upper Brisbane Stanley / Somerset Noosa Maroochy / Mooloolah Pumicestone Region Pine Rivers Brisbane River Estuary Redlands Nerang / Gold Coast Logan / Albert Bremer Lockyer Middle Brisbane

The EMSS view of the SEQ region 180 sub-catchments 2050 km river network 7 major water storages 10 landuses

Conservation Areas Managed Forests Plantations Natural Bush Grazing Broadacre Agriculture Intensive Agriculture Rural/Suburban Dense Urban Future Urban

Scenarios Release Version 1.0 contains three scenarios –Pre-settlement (1770) landuse, no storages, no point sources –Current (1997) landuse and land management –Future (2020) landuse, additional storages and point sources All use climate; this can be easily changed Ability to create, run and store new scenarios

Conservation Areas Managed Forests Plantations Natural Bush Grazing Broadacre Agriculture Intensive Agriculture Rural/Suburban Dense Urban Future Urban Current landuse (1997) (Adapted from SLATS) 5% 7% 2% 37% 36% 1% 5% 6% 1% 0%

Conservation Areas Managed Forests Plantations Natural Bush Grazing Broadacre Agriculture Intensive Agriculture Rural/Suburban Dense Urban Future Urban Future landuse (2020) (SEQ2021 Unit, LGP) 8% 6% 2% 30% 29% 1% 8% 9% 1% 3%

Conservation Areas Managed Forests Plantations Natural Bush Grazing Broadacre Agriculture Intensive Agriculture Rural/Suburban Dense Urban Future Urban Past landuse (1770) (Carnahan) 46% 0% 54% 0%

Year Median 10 th Percentile 90 th Percentile Annual rainfall (mm) Annual rainfalls for a site near Brisbane ( ) (dashed lines denote statistics for last 100 years)

Calibrating the runoff model 48 gauged sub-catchments used These cover about 40% of the region Varied size, rainfall, soils, landuse Period of record = years

Simulated runoff (mm) Observed runoff (mm) Mean annual runoff: observed versus predicted - 48 stations

Station Mooloolah River at Mooloolah Observed versus Predicted Monthly Runoff ( )

Station Coomera River at Army Camp Observed versus Predicted Monthly Runoff ( )

Station Laidley Creek at Mulgowie2 Observed versus Predicted Monthly Runoff ( )

% error in prediction of event flow-baseflow ratio (48 stations) Event runoff Baseflow Time 5 0 Runoff (mm) Getting the runoff component partitioning right

Conservation Areas Managed Forests Plantations Natural Scrub Grazing Broadacre Agriculture Intensive Agriculture Suburban Dense Urban Future Urban mg l -1

Predicted sediment loss (t/ha/y) (From Task SS) mg l -1

Example of map showing predicted sediment export (t/ha/y) from each sub-catchment

Actions that will be modelled by the EMSS Changing landuse Installation of SQIDS Establishment of riparian vegetation Changes to point source loadings

Select a sub-catchment See the original landuse pattern Change the distribution of landuse by dragging the bar View landuse

Select area of interest Sort by sub-catchment Select these sub-catchments

View a prediction Select TSS Select monthly totals