1 Global Food Prices, Country Policy Responses and World Bank Support Donald Mitchell DECPG April 24, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Global Food Prices, Country Policy Responses and World Bank Support Donald Mitchell DECPG April 24, 2008

2 US dollar prices overplay real increase International food price indices, 2000=100 Source: DECPG Nominal US dollars Real, i.e. relative to developing countries’ CPI

3 Grain Prices (nominal $/ton)

4 Reasons for food price increases High energy and fertilizer prices contributed to crop production costs High energy and fertilizer prices contributed to crop production costs Dollar weakness Dollar weakness Biofuels in U.S. and EU Biofuels in U.S. and EU Other factors - export bans, speculation, droughts would not have been significant without low stocks caused by biofuels Other factors - export bans, speculation, droughts would not have been significant without low stocks caused by biofuels

5 East Asia grain demand (w/China) (rolling 5 yr growth rate) Feed Total consumption

6 Prices to remain high Demand for biofuels will probably increase Demand for biofuels will probably increase (new US Energy bill in 2007) (new US Energy bill in 2007) Energy and fertilizer prices expected to remain high Energy and fertilizer prices expected to remain high Surplus production capacity limited (CRP) Surplus production capacity limited (CRP) Several countries have pasture land that can be cropped Several countries have pasture land that can be cropped

7 Grain stocks are at record lows

8 Fertilizer prices (nominal $/ton)

9 Country Responses Countries have banned or restricted exports: Argentina, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam Countries have banned or restricted exports: Argentina, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam India banned rice exports in October, and just announced plans to build a 5 million tons strategic reserve India banned rice exports in October, and just announced plans to build a 5 million tons strategic reserve Philippines has announced plans to build a strategic grain reserve Philippines has announced plans to build a strategic grain reserve

10 Country responses continued Reduced import tariffs (Morocco, Turkey) Reduced import tariffs (Morocco, Turkey) Price controls (China, Malaysia, Russia) Price controls (China, Malaysia, Russia) Reauthorized government imports (Yemen) Reauthorized government imports (Yemen) Food subsidies (Saudi Arabia) Food subsidies (Saudi Arabia) Cash transfers (Ethiopia, Jamaica and Egypt) Cash transfers (Ethiopia, Jamaica and Egypt)

11 World Bank Response*  Ensure household food security via targeted safety nets  Lower import tariffs and taxes on staples  Stimulate food production  Policy advise, provide short-run financing, invest in agriculture, improve safety nets, international agenda * from Development Committee Note (April 8)