Norges Bank Annual address 2005

Norges Bank Chart 1. Developments in GDP and interest rates year bond yield Key rate GDP Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Annual change. Per cent Per cent

Norges Bank Sources: Norges Bank, OECD, Statistics Norway Chart 2. International real interest rates Per cent Short-term real interest rates Long-term real interest rates

Norges Bank Chart 3. Long-term real interest rates Per cent Sources: Norges Bank, OECD, Statistics Norway Norway International

Norges Bank Chart 4. Risk premium Source: EcoWin Foreign exchange market Equity market Emerging economies Enterprises Percentage points Per cent

Norges Bank Chart 5. Current account balance Per cent of GDP Sources: EcoWin / National statistics US Euro area Asia

Norges Bank Chart 6. US net foreign debt Per cent of GDP Sources: Federal Reserve Board and US Department of Commerce

Norges Bank Chart 7. Private domestic demand Annual growth. Per cent Source: OECD US Euro area

Norges Bank Chart 8. Interest rates and inflation Per cent Market rate Inflation Real interest rate Neutral real interest rate Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank Chart 9. Key rate, lending rate and expected interest rate Per cent Key rate Expected interest rate 9 months ahead Banks' lending rate

Norges Bank Chart 10. Krone exchange rate and interest rate differential against trading partners 1) Krone exchange rate right-hand scale Interest rate differential left-hand scale Source: Norges Bank Percentage points Index The exchange rate channel 1) The graph showing the interest rate differential against trading partners has been changed compared with the version of the speech printed in Economic Bulletin 1/05. This is due to an adjustment of the weighting for Japan.

Norges Bank Chart 11. Krone exchange rate and rise in prices for imported consumer goods Imported consumer goods left-hand scale Sources: Norges Bank and Statistics Norway Krone exchange rate right-hand scale Per centIndex The exchange rate channel

Norges Bank Chart 12. Key rate and house prices Annual rise. Per cent Key rate Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) House prices The demand channel

Norges Bank Chart 13. Key rate and residential construction Residential construction Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Key rate Per cent Number of dwellings 12 mths The demand channel

Norges Bank Chart 14. Number employed In thousands Source: Statistics Norway The demand channel

Norges Bank Chart 15. Rise in prices and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy Per cent Rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway Capacity utilisation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank The demand channel

Norges Bank Chart 16. Projected consumer price inflation 5-year horizon. Annual rise. Per cent Source: TNS Gallup Analysts and academicians Employers' organisations Employees' organisations The expectations channel

Norges Bank Chart 17. Inflation and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy Projections. Per cent Inflation Capacity utilisation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Inflation target Projections

Norges Bank Chart 18. Central government spending and GDP Annual growth. Per cent Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway Underlying spending growth Nominal growth in mainland GDP 2004

Norges Bank Chart 19. Competitiveness Deviation from average. Per cent Sources: TRCIS, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Chart 20. Employment in manufacturing In thousands Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Chart 21. Wage growth and unemployment Per cent Source: Statistics Norway, TRCIS Wage growth Unemployment rate

Norges Bank Chart 22. Labour force participation among young people Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Age group Age group 16-19

Norges Bank Chart 23. Number of unemployed In thousands Number of unemployed Frictional and structural unemployment Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Chart 24. Persons on early retirement, disability pensioners and unemployed persons Percentage of population (aged 16-66) Disability pensioners Cyclical fluctuations in unemployment Persons on early retirement Frictional and structural unemployment Sources: Statistics Norway, National Insurance Administration and Norges Bank