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PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON FINANCE September 2003. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY.

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Presentation on theme: "PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON FINANCE September 2003. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY."— Presentation transcript:

1 PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON FINANCE September 2003

2 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

3 International oil price - monthly average

4 OECD leading indicators and industrial production

5 World Economic Outlook: Real GDP Annual percentage change in real GDP Actual Projections 2002 2003 2004 World3,03,24,1 Advanced economies1,81,82,9 USA2,42,63,9 Japan0,22,01,4 Euro area0,90,51,9 United Kingdom1,91,72,4 Developing countries4,65,05,6 Africa3,13,74,8 Asia6,46,46,5 Western hemisphere-0,11,13,6 Countries in transition4,24,94,7 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - September 2003

6 World Economic Outlook: Consumer prices Annual percentage change in consumer prices Actual Projections 2002 2003 2004 World3,53,93,2 Advanced economies1,51,81,3 USA1,62,11,3 Japan-0,9-0,3-0,6 Euro area2,32,01,6 United Kingdom2,22,82,5 Developing countries5,35,94,9 Africa9,310,67,7 Asia2,02,52,9 Western hemisphere8,710,97,0 Countries in transition11,19,79,1 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - September 2003

7 USA: Real gross domestic product

8 USA: Unemployment rate

9 USA: Consumer prices

10 Japan: Real gross domestic product

11 Japan: Unemployment rate

12 Japan: Consumer prices

13 Euro area: Real gross domestic product

14 Euro area: Unemployment rate

15 Euro area: Consumer prices

16 UK: Real gross domestic product

17 UK: Unemployment

18 UK: Consumer prices

19 SADC: Inflation Annual percentage change in consumer prices 2001 2002 Jun 2003 Jul 2003 Aug 2003 Africa13,09,3*** Angola152,6108,9110,7** Botswana6,68,112,79,28,3 Lesotho6,912,06,46,9* Malawi27,516,18,58,7* Mauritius5,46,44,54,33,7 Mozambique9,117,114,413,2* Namibia9,311,38,57,1* Seychelles6,42,01,15,3* South Africa5,710,16,75,2* Swaziland7,511,77,36,9* Tanzania5,24,74,44,5* Zambia21,722,221,920,2* Zimbabwe76,7140,0365,4399,5* * Not available Source: National central banks, unpublished Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2003

20 NATIONAL ECONOMY

21 Real gross domestic product

22 Real gross domestic product by the secondary sector

23 Real gross domestic expenditure

24 Real final consumption expenditure by households

25 Real household disposable income

26 Household debt as percentage of household disposable income

27 Real final consumption expenditure by general government

28 Real gross fixed capital formation

29 Real domestic final demand

30 Change in inventories

31 Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic product

32 Non-agricultural employment

33 FebSepFeb Sep 200120012002 2002 (000’s)(000’s)(000’s)(000’s) aTotal employment11 83710 83311 39311 029 Among the employed: Employed in the formal sector SEE survey (excluding agriculture and certain activities not covered in SEE)4 6764 6504 6344 679 Employed in agriculture1 3521 0511 5381 331 Employed in the formal sector in activities not covered in SEE2 002 2 2232 4032 355 Employed in the informal sector2 6651 8731 7671 703 Employed in domestic service914916972875 bTotal unemployed (official definition)4 2404 5254 7384 837 cTotal economically active = a + b16 07715 35816 13015 866 dTotal not economically active11 04412 00611 54312 118 eTotal aged 15 ‑ 65 years = c + d27 12127 36527 67327 984 fOfficial unemployment rate = b * 100/c26,4%29,5%29,4%30,5% Labour market statistics, based on the labour force survey

34 Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per worker

35 Non-agricultural labour productivity

36 Non-agricultural nominal unit labour cost

37 Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturing

38 All-goods production prices

39 Overall inflation and CPIX

40 Balance of payments: Current account

41 Balance on financial account

42 Financial account

43 Gross gold and other foreign exchange reserves

44

45 Imports covered by reserves

46 Net open position in foreign currency

47 Average net daily turnover in South African foreign exchange market

48 Exchange rates of the rand

49 Real effective exchange rate of the rand

50 M3 money supply

51 Total loans and advances extended to private sector

52 Turnover in the secondary bond market

53 Money-market interest rates

54 Yield on long-term government bonds

55 Yield curves

56 Turnover in the secondary share market

57 Share prices - all classes

58 Real-estate market

59 Revenue of national government

60 Expenditure by national government

61 Deficit of national government

62 Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirement


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