1 Hello Boys and Girls! My name is Stickman! Today we are going to be exploring probability and I will be your guide! Click on me to continue

What is Probability? 2 This is the home page! You can click on me at anytime during the presentation to get back here! Try it! Click on me to continue. How can we use Probability to run a Concession Stand?

What is Probability? What is Probability? How can we use Probability to run a Concession Stand? 3

What is Probability? What is Probability? 4 How can we use Probability to run a Concession Stand? How can we use Probability to run a Concession Stand?

5 What is Probability? Probability is the likeliness that something will happen!

6 Notation: When we flip one of our hard- earned quarters from the concession stand, we know that for every two times we flip it, we should get one head and one tail. Notation: When we flip one of our hard- earned quarters from the concession stand, we know that for every two times we flip it, we should get one head and one tail. How do we write Probability? Probability How do we write Probability? Probability

7 What is the Probability of us flipping a head or a tail? Probability What is the Probability of us flipping a head or a tail? Probability

8 What is the Probability of us flipping a head? Probability What is the Probability of us flipping a head? Probability The Probability of us flipping a head would be: ½: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing head- side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land head- side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land head-side up. Or the coin will land head up one time per two times it is flipped. The Probability of us flipping a head would be: ½: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing head- side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land head- side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land head-side up. Or the coin will land head up one time per two times it is flipped.

9 What is the Probability of us flipping a tail? Probability What is the Probability of us flipping a tail? Probability The Probability of us flipping a tail would be: ½: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing tail-side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land tail- side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land tail-side up. Or the coin will land tail side up one time per two times it is flipped. The Probability of us flipping a tail would be: ½: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing tail-side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land tail- side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land tail-side up. Or the coin will land tail side up one time per two times it is flipped.

10 Suppose a student flipped a coin 100 times. How many times should the coin land head-up?

Correct! 11 That’s Right! You really know your stuff! Click on me to go back to the home page!

wrong 12 Think about how many times the coin will land head-up if you flip it two times. How can we use this information to solve the problem? Try Again!

13 Now we are going to learn about how to use probability in our concession stand. Let’s try one together!

1 14 We sell 20 popcorns during that day. Suppose that on a normal day in the concession stand, we have 100 customers.

15 Watch the video below for a step-by-step demonstration of the application of probability to our concession stand!

Prob in concession stand 5 16 So…Based on probability, if there are 10 people in line, how many of them should buy popcorn? Remember that on a normal day, 20 out of 100 customers buy popcorn!probability So…Based on probability, if there are 10 people in line, how many of them should buy popcorn? Remember that on a normal day, 20 out of 100 customers buy popcorn!probability

wrong 17 We know that 20 out of 100 people will buy popcorn. How can we write this as a reduced fraction? Try Again!

Correct! 18 That’s Right! You really know your stuff!

Probability in a concession stand 1 19 So why is it important that we use probability in our concession stand? probability So why is it important that we use probability in our concession stand? probability Businesses can use probability to help them determine what consumers like and don’t like. The more a business understands its consumers, the more money it will make.

stand 2 20 Why do we use probability to predict sales? In our concession stand, it is important that we pop the right amount of popcorn. If we pop too much popcorn, we will have to throw the extra away. If we pop too little popcorn, our customers won’t be satisfied. How can we pop just the right amount? In our concession stand, it is important that we pop the right amount of popcorn. If we pop too much popcorn, we will have to throw the extra away. If we pop too little popcorn, our customers won’t be satisfied. How can we pop just the right amount?

21 100people Remember: If 100 customers visit the concession stand, we will sell 20 popcorns. Remember: If 100 customers visit the concession stand, we will sell 20 popcorns. How could we figure out how much popcorn to pop if we were expecting 300 customers? SUBMIT 20 Popcorns

6 22 We know that for every 100 people that visit the concession stand, 20 buy popcorn. How would we get from 100 to 300 people? What property would we use? 100people = SUBMIT 20Popcorns60Popcorns X 3/3

Correct! 23 That’s Right! You really know your stuff!

24 Now you try some on your own!

25 Our Concession Stand is filled with goodies! Given the three options below, what is the probability that a customer would chose to buy popcorn? Suppose that all items are equally liked! 1:3 2:2 1:4

wrong 26 Think back the penny example in the beginning of the show. (Click here to go back to the slide.) How can you relate flipping a coin to this problem?here Try Again!

Correct! 27 That’s Right! You really know your stuff!

28 What is the Probability of us flipping a head? Probability What is the Probability of us flipping a head? Probability The Probability of us flipping a head would be: ½: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing head- side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land head- side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land head-side up. The Probability of us flipping a head would be: ½: For every time we flip the coin, there is a half chance of the coin landing head- side up. 50 %: For every one time we flip it, there is a 50% chance the coin will land head- side up. 1:2: There is a one in two chance that the coin will land head-side up.

29 What is Probability? Probability is the likeliness that something will happen!

30 Now suppose there are three different types of soda, one candy bar and one box of popcorn and that each item is equally liked. What is the probability of a customer choosing the candy bar? 1:3 1:5 1:2

wrong 31 How many total options does the customer have to choose from? Now how many of those options are the candy bar? Try Again!

Correct! 32 That’s Right! You really know your stuff!

33 Let’s look at the same scenario again: there are three different types of soda, one candy bar and one box of popcorn and that each item is equally liked. Now we want to know the probability of a customer choosing any type of soda? 3:5 1:5 1:3

wrong 34 How many total options does the customer have to choose from? Now how many of those options are the sodas? Try Again!

Correct! 35 That’s Right! You really know your stuff!

36 You did a great job today! It was really fun learning about how we can apply probability to the real world!