1 Assessing Vulnerability of Living Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Roger Griffis Climate Change Coordinator, NOAA Fisheries Service

2 Key Points 1.Growing U.S. Framework to Address Impacts of Climate Change 2.Variety of NOAA Research and Management Activities 3.Areas For Possible Collaboration

National Climate Assessment national multisectors regional National Fish Wildlife Plant Climate Adaptation Strategy NOAA Climate Adaptation Plan Endangered Species Vulnerability Assessment U.S. Strategic Framework to Assess and Respond to Climate Change Impacts national natural resources ecosystems regional ESA species regional fish stocks fisheries best practices impacts of climate change needs to address climate change indicators to track impacts and responses impacts and needs strategies for adaptation multisector blueprint impacts needs to address them NOAA strategy impacts needs to address them best practices impacts needs to address them best practices national multisectors mission specific Fisheries Vulnerability Assessment

Current Efforts Ecosystem/environment Sub-regional scales Decadal scales Stock Assessment Models Fish and fishing Regional spatial scale Short temporal scales General Circulation Models Physical environment Large spatial scale Long temporal scales Chemistry and biology Regional scales Decadal scales

5 Climate change and fisheries management: examples from the northeast U.S. shelf

Hypothesized Shifts in Fish Distributions with Warming Ocean Temperatures Eastern U.S. Waters (Cape Hatteras to Canadian border) (Credit: Chad Keith, NEFSC/NOAA)(Credit: Janet Nye, NEFSC/NOAA)

Regional Fisheries Responses Shifting distributions 24 of 36 stocks have shifted poleward and/or deeper 1.6 km yr -1 and 0.25 m yr -1 Red hake Nye JA et al. (2009) Marine Ecology Progress Series 393:

Current Efforts: Atlantic Croaker Hare et al. (2010) Atlantic croaker Examined distribution and abundance Function of winter temperature Used 14 GCM’s and three emission scenarios (commit, B1 A1B) Projections based on

Current Efforts: Atlantic Croaker Distribution projected to expand northwards

Current Efforts: Atlantic Croaker Distribution projected to expand northwards Recruitment higher at higher air temperatures Mechanism is over-winter survival of young-of-year croaker (Hare and Able 2007)

Resource levels under future climate conditions? Triangles = fishing rates at maximum sustainable yields (FMSY) Distribution projected to expand northwards Recruitment higher at higher air temperatures Maximum sustainable yield increases with increasing temperature Fishing at MSY increases

12 Climate change and fisheries management: examples from the U.S. west coast

Adults spawn & die in spring & summer Parr live in streams for 1 yr Smolts emigrate to sea in spring Grow at sea for 1-4 yrs Freshwater Ocean Eggs incubate over winter Spring/Summer Chinook salmon “stream-type” life history

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation cool warm

Cool (-) phase The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cold sea temperature Northerly currents Strong upwelling High productivity Lots of forage fish Low predation Good salmon survival

Warm (+) phase The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm sea temperature Southerly currents Little upwelling Low productivity Few forage fish High predation Poor salmon survival

Climate change vs. climate variability Much of recent emphasis is on climate change (for example, global warming) For fisheries, climate variability is also important Time Temperature

Loss of Arctic Sea Ice: Ecological Implications for NOAA-Managed Species Variety of impacted NOAA Trust Resources (MMPA, ESA, MSA) Ringed, Ribbon, Spotted, Bearded Seals + Arctic FMP Record losses of Arctic Sea Ice

19 SSC supports recommendations to reduce pollock harvest based on assessment and continuation of poor (warm) environmental conditions 2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning NPCREP - Mooring 2

20 Areas of Interest Past Climatologies Regional Forecasts of Climate Change and Variability Coupling Climate-Ocean-Ecosystem models Assessing Vulnerability of Fisheries – Rapid Vulnerability Assessment protocols – Understand species and ecosystem responses – Targeted modeling