Material for assessing monetary policy - 2005-2007 18 February 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Material for assessing monetary policy February 2008

Figure 1. GDP for the United States, euro area and the world Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, IMF and US Department of Commerce

Diagram 2. CPI-inflation in the United States, Euro area and the world Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and IMFNote. HICP in euro area.

Figure 3. Policy rates Per cent Sources: Bank of England, ECB and the Federal Open Market Committee

Figure 4. The difference between interbank rates and government bond rates in 2007 Percentage points Source: the Riksbanken

Figure 5. GDP for Sweden Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. Labour force and employment Thousands, seasonally adjusted Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. Labour productivity for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Trend calcualted using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.

Figure 8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 9. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 10. House prices and total lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 11. CPI and CPIX inflation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 12. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for direct effects of changes in indirect taxes Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. In parentheses the wheights in CPI are stated.

Figure 13. CPIX excluding energy divided into goods, services and food Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The weights in CPIX are stated in the parentheses

Figure 14. Different agents' expectations of inflation for 2009 in 2007 Per cent Source: Prospera Research AB

Figure 15. Inflation and households' inflation expectations 12 month ahead Annual percentage change Sources: NIER and the Riksbank Note. The expectations are advanced 12 month to match the CPI outcome to which they refer.

Figure 16. Employment, labour force and open unemployment Annual percentage change and per cent of labour force, seasonal adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 17. Productivityscenario, CPIX calculated with long term productivity growth compared to outcome of CPIX Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 18. Productivityscenario, growth in GDP calculated with long term productivity growth compared to outcome for growth in GDP Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table 1. Inflation outcome 2005, 2006 and 2007 Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 19. CPI forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 20. CPIX forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 21. GDP forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 22. Forecasts of number of employed Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 23. Forecasts for the inflation (CPI) 2007, made at different points in time Annual average Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 24. Ranking of CPI forecasts, 50% Per cent Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 25. Ranking of CPI forecasts, 25% Per cent Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 26. Forecasts for GDP 2006 made at different points in time Annual average Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 27. Forecasts for GDP 2007 made at different points in time Annual average Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table 2. Inflation forecasts in 2005, 2006 and 2007 Annual average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. 112-month rate The forecast figures in the grey-coloured fields are the main scenarios in the reports IR05:1, IR05:2 which are based on the assumption that the repo rate remains unchanged during the forecast period. The forecast figures in the white-coloured fields for IR05:1 and IR05:2 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates. The forecast figures from IR05:3, IR05:4, IR06:1, IR06:2 and IR06:3 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates; this was the main scenario in these reports. The forecast figures from MPR07:1, MPR07:2, MPR07:3 and MPU are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with the Riksbank’s repo rate forecast which was presented in the respective reports.

Figure 28. Repo rate outcome and implied forward rates 2005 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 29. Repo rate outcome and implied forward rates 2006 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 30. Repo rate forecasts at different times 2007 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 31. Repo rate outcome, repo rate forecasts and implied forward rates at some points in time Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Table 3. Outcomes and forecasts made for different variables during 2005, 2006 and 2007 Annual average unless otherwise stated Sources: OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. 112-month rate, 2)in the business sector, 3)the whole of the OECD, 4per cent of labour force. The forecast figures in the grey-coloured fields are the main scenarios in the reports IR05:1, IR05:2 which are based on the assumption that the repo rate remains unchanged during the forecast period. The forecast figures in the white-coloured fields for IR05:1 and IR05:2 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates. The forecast figures from IR05:3, IR05:4, IR06:1, IR06:2 and IR06:3 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates; this was the main scenario in these reports. The forecast figures from MPR07:1, MPR07:2, MPR07:3 and MPU are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with the Riksbank’s repo rate forecast which was presented in the respective reports.