National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview.

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Presentation transcript:

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview

2

3 Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

4 National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices -- NCEP Centers

5 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Feedback Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance Process Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … NCEP

6 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Weather Prediction Products Climate Prediction Products TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth

7 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Storm Prediction Center

8 50 FTE 46 FTE Total FTE: Contractors/20 Visitors FTE 73 FTE 10 FTE 26 FTE

9 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

10 Dispersion Air Quality NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Forecas t Global Observations Severe Weather Regional Analysis Rapid Update Cycle Hurricane Forecasts Global Forecasts Regional Forecasts Real-Time Ocean Forecast System Climate Forecasts Current 211M Obs/Day Dominated by Satellites (99.99%)

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Cryosphere Atmosphere Ocean Land Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

12 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Weather & Climate Supercomputer $19.0 M Backup $ 7.1 M Total: $26.1 M/yr Receives Over 211 Million Global Observations Daily (99.9% sat.) Sustained Computational Speed: Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, x upgrade scheduled for th Q delivery

13 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, service and delivery –Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services