1. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 1 Ecological Forecasting and Services Roadmap David Green Office of Climate, Water, Weather and ???? Services

2. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 2 2 Outline Revolutionary Change Service Integration Ecological Forecasting Service Roadmap

3. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 3 3 Case for Change More valued, interdisciplinary science, integration, interpretation, and decision support services for…. –Climate –Integrated Water –Renewable Energy –Environment –….

4. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 4 4 How much change? Revolutionary Change or Stretch? Linking Environmental Sustainability and Human Well-being Promoting the Earth System View “Entering the Century of the Environment A New Social Contract for Science” Lubchenco 1998

5. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 5 5 NWS Strategic Plan Stretch Goal* Goal 5: Enable Integrated environmental services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems Objective: Extend weather, water, and climate services to provide ecological and health- based forecasts and services Objective: Advance capabilities in support of ecological prediction * based on pre-decisional draft ver 2.0 4/14/2010

6. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 6 6 What does it mean for us? –Shifting the culture Growing and strengthening our identity Creating and leveraging new partnerships Promoting risk tolerance and innovation Enhancing communication –Completing the forecast Changing processes Including social science Supporting new predictions Measuring societal outcomes Integrated Environmental Services

7. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 7 7 Integrated Environmental Services Enable and support more comprehensive, integrated and sustained service through improved collaboration Operational weather & climate observations & forecasting Operational water & coastal ocean observations & forecasting Biogeochemical & hydrodynamic Information & modeling Social & economic information & modeling Operational ecological observations & forecasting

8. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 8 8 “Seamless Suite” of Integrated Environmental Services e.g. Ecosystem Services over broad time and spatial scales

9. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 9 9 Ecological Forecasting Predicting the effects of biological, chemical, physical, and human-induced changes on ecosystems and their components ROMS Downscaling Coupling models and linking products Data Assimilation Probabilistic forecasting Regional Earth System Modeling

10. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 10 Integrated Environmental Services Example: HABs NWS (NCEP, RFCs, WFOs) with NOS, NESDIS, and academia –Outlooks and Alerts of Probability of Harmful Algal Bloom formation, landfall, intensity and direction Hydro-met-ocean data and ensemble models –wind speed, duration, stress, surface temperature, freshwater runoff, nutrient levels, salinity,...) Climatology –Opportunities: AWIPs, buoys, mesonets, NWR...

11. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 11 Chesapeake Bay Pilot Forecasts  Beach/Water Quality Daily, Weekly (3-7-day), Seasonal Outlooks and Lead times  Living Resource Distribution Jellyfish forecast; Oyster Forecast, Annual biomass, including harvests and other related mortality/disease  Dissolved Oxygen [DO] Predictions Synoptic to seasonal  Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll) Initiation and land fall at all time scales Sea Nettles  Disease Pathogen Progression (Climate Change) Vibrio or MSX outbreaks (Mollusks, fish, human impacts) Ecological impacts of global change (eg. sea level rise) Long-term scenarios

12. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 12 Services Roadmap What services can be provided –In the 2-5 year range? –In the 5-10 year range? And how are we going to get there? What new partnerships should be forged? How can NWS work most effectively with industry, academia and regional associations to improve the relevance hydro, met and ocean information?

13. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 13 Water Resource Management Air Pollution/ Air Quality Ecosystem Health Fire Weather Arctic Climate Special Use Areas/Recreation (National/State Parks, Sanctuaries …) Others Public Health Energy (on/offshore wind, solar, wave...) Transportation (aviation, marine, surface...) Construction Agriculture/Food Production Military and Defense Homeland Security Space Weather Disaster and Emergency Management Potential New and Expanded Sectors for Services Roadmap

14. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 14 Change What We Do In the next 2-5 years, NCEP could –Increase work with non-traditional experts to Integrate air, land and ocean Link with biogeochemical and ecology models Improve regional earth system modeling Assimilate industry/academic observations –Work with researcher to address NWP challenges and strengthen backbone for environmental prediction WFOs and Centers could –Leverage community presence to Assess market supporting environmental services concept Broaden outreach and interdisciplinary training/collaboration Identify opportunities to prototype new environmental services

15. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 15 Service Roadmap Roadmap will address needs of expanded and large number of new users: Coastal Area Managers, Emergency and Flood Managers Private Citizens and Specialized Private Sector Users (e.g., fishers) State and Local Officials and Govt.’s, and Port Authorities Land-Use and Marine Area Planners Water and Natural Resource Managers and Regulators Energy Producers and Providers Chambers of Commerce, Small Businesses, Insurance Sector Other Federal Agencies (e.g., EPA, USFDA, USGS, MMS, NIH/CDC, NSF, NASA, Army Corps, USDA …) >>> Roadmap will address training and education and human capital planning

16. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 16 Service Roadmap Our Services Vision… Impact-based Decision Support Services will become integral to our corporate identity 4D Cube enhances the delivery of service Enhanced services that drive societal and economic benefits

17. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 17 Services Roadmap More Questions than Answers? How will we do business in the future? How can the culture be changed? How do we move to an information organization? How do we promote innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration to address expanding, emerging, and new service needs? How do we maintain credibility and flexibility to deliver impact based forecasts and integrated decision support services? How do we best create and leverage partnerships? Roadmap V 1.0 We Need Your Help

18. National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property 18 Proposed Next Steps Enlist NWS leadership (MIC-HIC) Engage community in developing the service requirements including social science and measureable societal benefits Extend collaboration with multiple Line Offices, agencies, academic, and regional participation Deliver Roadmap 1.0 Sept.