Physical Correlations of West Nile Virus Outbreaks in the Southern United States Mentor: Dr. David Parsons Jonathan Wille Jack M c Lean Charlotte Lunday.

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Presentation transcript:

Physical Correlations of West Nile Virus Outbreaks in the Southern United States Mentor: Dr. David Parsons Jonathan Wille Jack M c Lean Charlotte Lunday Special thanks to, Jun Li, Claude Duchon, and William Crosson!

Brief Recap WNV is a potentially fatal neuroinvasive virus Mosquitos and birds serve as intermediate hosts Texas 2012: 1739 cases, 76 deaths Created unrest in Dallas WNV cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the summer of 2012

Data is in WNV data provided by state epidemiologist in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Data spanned , entire duration of WNV’s presence in Southern Plains Provides date each case is reported by hospital Israeli case study recommends lag of 3-9 weeks. Strongest at 5 and 7 weeks (Paz 2006) Apply a 5 and 7 week lag to our data for analysis NCEP/NCAR data Precipitation 0-10cm Soil Moisture Air Temperature Wind magnitude 2.5 degree grid spacing

Original Mentality + =

It Turns Out…. Drought increases WNV prevalence due increased organic matter in standing water pools (Epstein and Defilippo, 2001; Epstein, 2005; Tibbetts, 2007) Precipitation has a weak correlation in the spring and transitions to a negative correlation in the summer (Chuang, T. et al., 2012) When temperatures don’t fall below 77° F (25° C) for seven days, the minimum temperature becomes the most important climatic factor in encouraging the early appearance of the virus (Paz 2006) Temperatures above 39° C are lethal to some mosquitoes (Mayne, 1930) without regard to the relative humidity (Mellanby 1934). Temperatures of 40° C-42° C might be withstood for as long as 3 hours and 43° C might be withstood for 30 minutes. At 48° C females live less than one minute. (The Book)

Semi-arid Israeli Soil Moisture (Xie, Steinberger 2001) Annual Oklahoma Soil Moisture (Illston et al. 2004) Soil Moisture Comparison

Plain incidence rate of three states of 2012

Dallas Amarillo Oklahoma City Tulsa

Temperature Spike Precipitation SpikeBelow Freezing

Dallas

Where we stand Current work Began data analysis and plotting Currently drawing conclusions from the data Literature has been thoroughly reviewed Next Steps Code and run regression for quantifiable results Perform GIS raster analysis for geographical results

Questions?