Scope for further emission reductions: The range between Current Legislation and Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp

The CAFE baseline Summary

Economic drivers assumed for the PRIMES energy projections

Land-based emissions CAFE “With climate measures” baseline, EU-25

The Maximum Technically Feasible Emission Reductions (MTFR)

General assumptions for the MTFR analysis All calculations for 2020 Based on CAFE “with climate measures” baseline scenario MTFR assumes: –Full application of measures included in RAINS database (following IPPC BREF notes) –No premature scrapping and no retrofitting beyond current legislation –Maximum reductions also applied in non-EU countries and sea regions All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology

Scope for further improvements

Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions “With climate measures” projection, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE “with climate measures” baseline, EU-25

Impact assessment

Impact assessments Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM Premature deaths attributable to ozone Vegetation damage from ozone (AOT40) Excess of critical loads for acidification for forest soils Excess of critical loads for acidification for semi-natural ecosystems Excess of critical loads for acidification for lakes Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 [µg/m 3 ] Contributions of primary and secondary inorganic aerosols to PM2.5 Excluding secondary organic and natural aerosols Calculations for 1997 meteorology, grid average results CLE MTFR

First results from City-Delta Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5, 2000 [µg/m 3 ] Grid average vs. urban increments

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Current legislation MTFR Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases per year] Provisional estimates based on grid average ozone concentrations, 1997 meteorology

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours] Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to forests % of forest area with acid deposition above CL

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas [% of ecosystems area]

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above CL

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Current legislation MTFR

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above CL

Uncertainties Four types of uncertainties: Gaps in scientific understanding –See RAINS review Model design, assumptions and simplifications –Deliberate attempt to be cautious Statistical uncertainties of input data –E.g., inter-annual meteorological variability –Quantification would need more work Uncertainties in socio-economic drivers –E.g., energy projections: National projections Illustrative climate scenario (carbon price 90 €/t CO 2 )

CO 2 emissions 2015 relative to 2000

Scope for further technical emission reductions “Illustrative climate” vs. “with climate measures” scenario, EU-25 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SO2NOxVOCNH3PM CLE-2020 "with climate measures" CLE 2020 "Illustrative climate" MTFR-2020 "with climate measures" MTFR 2020 "Illustrative climate"

Conclusions There is scope for further emission reductions: –Starting from the “with climate measures” PRIMES projection, relatively little AQ improvements from more aggressive climate policies –Significant scope from further technical measures beyond current legislation Different regions in Europe experience different problems

Wish list ranked by WGTSPA according to priority 15 policy runs (3 ambition levels *5 environmental problems) for 2020 – including cost estimates Explore uncertainties through sensitivity analyses –MTFR for national scenarios –Different meteorological years –Increased hemispheric background for O 3 Policy packages –EURO-V/VI –CAP reform scenario –Scenario for maximum Community action measures Include emerging technologies (e.g., beyond SCR) “Ultimate MTFR” scenario including retrofit and premature scrapping Look at 2010 All results 10 days before the next meeting

More information The RAINS model on the web: The seminar on the RAINS methodology: January 20-21, 2005 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (more info on the RAINS web site) RAINS documentation, data, review on the web: