Climate & Ecosystems Program Kenric Osgood Office of Science & Technology National Marine Fisheries Service NOAA

Performance Objective: Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. Climate Strategy: Develop the ability to predict the consequences of climate change on ecosystems by monitoring changes in coastal and marine ecosystems, conducting research on climate-ecosystem linkages, and incorporating climate information into physical-biological models. Climate & Ecosystems

End-State: An ability to predict probable consequences of climate change on ecological systems enabling improved management of living marine resources Requirements: Monitor, understand and predict the impacts of global climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems. Improve management of marine fisheries, marine mammals and protected marine species by accounting for the impacts of climate variability and change on marine systems and their living marine resources. Evaluate and provide forecasts of climate impacts on coastal ecosystems, including coral ecosystems, and provide the ability to predict future impacts. Capabilities: Monitor changes in coastal and marine ecosystems Develop biophysical indicators and models Climate & Ecosystems

Unique Role of Program: NOAA has management responsibilities for coastal and living marine resources, including marine fisheries and protected marine species. No other program within NOAA has the responsibility to account for ecosystem responses to climate variability/change. Products/Climate Services: Delivery to living marine resource and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate variability/change into the management of coastal and living marine resources. - Indices - Models

Climate & Ecosystems Highlights/Past Successes: North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP)

Climate & Ecosystems Activities within the Program Role of the competitive programs

Climate & Ecosystems Impact of FY05 and FY06 Budget on Program Activities Role of internal/external funding Priorities for the Program based on the FY05 and FY06 Budget

Climate & Ecosystems Future directions for the Program FY07-13 under constrained budget Continue North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity Build a competitive component to the Climate & Ecosystems Program. Expand the scope of the Climate & Ecosystems Program.

The anomaly of counts of Chinook salmon at the Bonneville Dam. Percent of coho salmon that return to their hatcheries. These returns are “linked to the PDO” During cold phase of the PDO salmon do well and vice versa

Migration pattern of Pacific sardines and Pacific hake, redrawn from Saunders and McFarlane Idealized conditions are indicated, since the extent and location of spawning and feeding habitats, and the coastal migrations of hake and sardine vary with ocean and climate conditions.

Is marsh building adequate to keep pace with subsidence and sea-level rise?

Widespread Thermal Stress and Coral Bleaching Thermal stress in the Caribbean reached record-breaking levels Severe coral bleaching throughout the eastern Caribbean (~ 25% mortality) 2005 CARIBBEAN EVENT Percent Percent Coral Cover Bleached Caribbean ‘05 DHW Annual Composite Coupling retrospective analysis with SST forecast models, Bleaching Forecasts would allow researchers to plan accelerated monitoring and managers to take actions to reduce other stressors Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) 1998 bleaching 2005 bleaching Coral Reef Bleaching Forecasts A Changing Thermal Regime for Marine Ecosystems

Benthic marine calcifiers Shell dissolution in live pteropod A Changing Chemical Regime for Marine Ecosystems As ocean saturation state decreases, a concomitant reduction in calcification rates can occur. –Reduced extension rates –Weaker skeletons Monitoring changes in marine ecosystems in response to ocean acidification will demand improving our ecosystem observing capabilities at multiple scales. Ocean Acidification That ‘other’ CO 2 problem

Climate and Eutrophication Seven year correlation between monthly averaged precipitation and chlorophyll anomalies along SE coast. Shown below: data for February 1998