1. Interannual Time Scales: ENSO Decadal Time Scales: Basin Wide Variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) Longer Time Scales: Warming trend Marine Ecosystems and Climate Variability

2. SST Anomalies – Jan 1998 SST Anomalies – Dec 1999 A B ºCºC Pt. 1 Pt. 2 Pt. 3 y x ENSO Warm Phase Cold Phase Less upwelling Less primary production Less CO2 flux out of the ocean More upwelling More primary production More CO2 flux out of the ocean

3. Interannual Time Scales: ENSO Decadal Time Scales: Basin Wide Variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) Longer Time Scales: Warming trend Marine Ecosystems and Climate Variability

4. PACIFIC OCEAN Marine Ecosystems and Climate Variability Decadal scale variations

5. (source: Checkley et al., 2000) Sardine Eggs Changes in Fish abundance is driven by the variability of hydrographic conditions Point Conception

6. Regional indices of Climate variability PACIFIC OCEAN

7. Most of the regional indices reflect large-scale climate variations in the North Pacific they can be summarized Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index

8. CurrentsSST

9. January Mean Sea Level Pressure

10. Negative Phase Positive Phase Mean Sea Level Pressure

11. Anomaly PDO Negative PhaseMean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly PDO Positive Phase

12. Anomaly PDO Negative Phase Anomaly PDO Positive Phase SST Anomalies

13. Pacific Decadal Oscillation

14. ++-

15. Large-scale indices of Climate variability PACIFIC OCEAN..and biology 1976 Regime Shift ?

16. Transitions in the Ecosystem may by nonlinear and sudden. There could be predictive skill (in terms of climate change) in monitoring closely the ecosystem

17. Observations along the California Coast

19. The NPGO (North Pacific Gyre Oscillations) North Pacific dominant mode of oceanic variability: the PDO and NPGO (left), are driven by the first two dominant modes of atmospheric variability evident in sea level pressure, the Aleutian Low variability and the NPO (right). Di Lorenzo et al. GRL 2008

21. (A) Mean surface salinity (SSS) from ROMS model over the period 1950- 2004. (B) First mode of variability for model surface salinity anomaly (SSSa) inferred from EOF1. Black arrows correspond to surface currents anomalies during the positive phase of the NPGO. (C) Timeseries of NPGO index (black) and PC1 of SSSa (R=0.67, 99%), observed SSSa at Ocean Station Papa (OSP) (R=0.40, 96%) at the offshore end of Line-P [Crawford et al., 2007], and observed SSSa from CalCOFI program (R=0.42, 95%). Di Lorenzo et al. GRL 2009

22. Variability of subsurface nitrate (NO3). (A) Mean subsurface (150m) NO3 from ROMS model over 1975-2004. (B) First mode of variability for model subsurface (150m) NO3 anomaly inferred from EOF1. (C) Timeseries of NPGO index (black) compared to PC1 of NO3 (R=0.65, 99%), observed mix layer NO3 at Line-P [Peña and Varela, 2007], and observed NO3 from CalCOFI program (R=0.51, 95%).

23. Zoo- plankton Phytoplankton Abundance Population Dynamics

24. A simple Ecosystem model Phyto Detritus NO 3 NH 4 Zoo Physical Environment

25. The seasonal cycle of the simple model

26. Increasing nutrient supply Seasonal cycles

27. A simple Ecosystem model Phyto Detritus NO 3 NH 4 Zoo Physical Environment Fish and Higher Trophic Levels HUMANS

28. Historical Overfishing and the Recent Collapse of Coastal Ecosystems Jackson et al., Science, Vol 293, Issue 5530, 629-637, 27 July 2001 and more comlpex… Coral Reefs

29. A simple Ecosystem model Phyto Detritus NO 3 NH 4 Zoo Physical Environment Fish and Higher Trophic Levels HUMANS GLOBAL WARMING and Carbon Cycle

30. End of lecture