Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment - SLICE

Outcomes of Drivers More runoff – flow, sediment, nutrient loading (indicators) Longer growing seasons Warmer waters Wet-dry fluxes (evaporation & precip) Exotic species invasions Result: Warmer, more productive waters

Eutrophication Declining resiliency of clear-water regime Resilient: turbid-water; no macrophytes Resilient: Clear-water; macrophytes Scheffer and Carpenter 2003 Ecosystem State

Need 1: monitoring stressors and habitat conditions

Consequences on Fish

Fish & disturbance Fish-based IBI For > 60% For Ag & For Ag, For & Urban Ag Urban Drake and Valley 2005

Need 2: Monitoring fish population and community indicators

Need 3: Going beyond documenting the decline Predictive modeling of consequences of alternative scenarios on habitat and fish

Strategy to meet “needs” A focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies Designing a collaborative long-term monitoring program (SLICE) 4-yr pilot to: –Identify sensitive habitat and fish indicators –Identify important stressor-habitat-fish links and mechanisms –Build partnerships

1.Retrospective analysis of fish and habitat “status” of 24 sentinel lakes 2.Simulation modeling to forecast outcomes of alternative climate and land use changes on fish habitat and fish 3.ID set of habitat and fish indicators most responsive to climate and land use change. 4.Design of SLICE (e.g., approp. Sampling frequency, split- panel design) Sentinel Lakes Pilot - Objectives

Sentinel Lake Selection Criteria: –Ecoregion (4) –Mixing Status (Stratified and Unstratified) –Total Phosphorus (Low, Med, High – Ecoregion specific) Additional criteria inc. good historical data sets (e.g. PCA ref lakes, sediment cores, lake level monitoring), or partnership opportunities Fisheries Area Workloads considered

What we’re collecting… Monthly water quality profiles (TP, TN, Chl a, ions, temp/DO - PCA) Secchi & Lake level – Citizens Monthly Zooplankton – PCA & DNR Annual aquatic plant surveys – DNR Annual fish surveys - DNR

Split-Panel Design = “Panel” or Group of Lakes Year

Split-Panel Design = “Panel” or Group of Lakes Year Sentinel lakes Monitoring will be intensive

Split-Panel Design Year Random surveys To work into Fisheries Lake Survey Program Monitoring fewer indicators in more lakes Approach is “extensive” = “Panel” or Group of Lakes

How lake associations can get involved CLMP Lake level monitoring Financing ongoing water chemistry testing (profiles) Temp/DO monitoring Shoreline development monitoring (protocols being developed by DNR)