Fire Weather Customer Meeting 2004 Sponsored by NWS-ABQ.

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Presentation transcript:

Fire Weather Customer Meeting 2004 Sponsored by NWS-ABQ

Outline Statistics Fire Weather Zones Summer Precipitation Across NM: Regimes and Variability El Nino is back Open Forum

Statistics

Red Flag Verification 2004 –Zones Warned: 104 –Total Zones Occurred: 70 –Warned Zones Verified: 69 –Warned Zones didn’t Verify: 35 –No warning issued/Zones Missed: 1 –POD (Prob of Detection): 0.99 –FAR (False Alarm Rate): 0.34 –CSI (Critical Success Index): 0.66 –Average Lead Time: 14.3 hours

WARNINGS ZnsOcrd

WARNINGS

Statistics Fire Weather Watch Verification 2004 –Zones Watch: 84 –Total Zones Occurred: 70 –Watch Zones Verified: 53 –Watch Zones didn’t Verify: 30 –No watch issued/Zones Missed: 17 –POD (Prob of Detection): 0.76 –FAR (False Alarm Rate): 0.37 –CSI (Critical Success Index): 0.52 –Average Lead Time: 31.6 hours

WATCH Zones Ocrd

WATCHES

Statistics Spot Forecasts

Statistics Turn Around Time for Spot Forecasts –Calculated by subtracting Requested time from Forecast Complete time

Statistics Spot Forecast Feedback –Faxed observation sheet –NWS-Spot Web Page Feedback Button Remarks Section –Initial Spot Request –Portable RAWS (hourly GOES) Remarks Section –Initial Spot Request –Phone Call Looked at January through October

Faxed

NWS-Spot

Feedback↓Button

Initial Request ↑ Remarks Box

Remarks Section Initial Request

Statistics Feedback –Hourly afternoon or burn period T,RH and wind (Max T, Min RH, General Wind) If needs are critical for overnight hours (Min T, Max RH and General Wind) –Critical weather such as precipitation duration and accumulation (estimate), Start of upslope or downslope winds and afternoon mixing –Misc such as snow on the ground and sky cover –Pertinent information for the burn site Slope (ridgetop-mid-valley bottom) “Unusual” topography (saddle, chute etc) Rule of Thumb Wx Burn area defined Topo Maps

Statistics Why? –Efficiency Get Forecast Out Quicker as Forecaster’s use Trends –Customers wait for forecasts are less –Forecasters don’t have to guess on what happened thus less busy time spent Correct trends applied to good ground truthing provides more accurate forecasts.

Fire Weather Zones

Old Zone Map

New Zone Map

New Zone Names 101: Northwest Plateau 102: North Central Mountains 103: Northeast Highlands 104: Northeast Plains 105: Northwest Highlands 106: Middle Rio Grande Valley 107: Sandia-Manzano and Gallinas Mountains 108: East Central Plains 109: West Central Highlands

New Zone Map: Elevation

Old Zone over New Zone Map

NFDRS and New Zones 11 to 15

Ventilation Forecast Points: New Zones