Global Warming - 2 The difficult issues PowerPoint 97 PowerPoint 97 To download: Shift LeftClick Please respect copyright on this material

Reaction Topic F If you were President of the United States, with responsibility for doing something about global warming, what would you do.

Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

Notes on Science Assessment F Current consensus on attribution of global warming to human activities – Balance of Probabilities (Likely) F Regional predictions much less secure that global average F Precipitation predictions much less secure that temperature F Impacts on ecosystem, agriculture,etc implied only in general terms

Comparative Policy Factors -1 F Carbon Dioxide – greatest man-made effect – reversible response time > 50 yrs F Methane – per Carbon atom 30 times CO 2 – much less in atmosphere – reversible response time 12 years F Nitrous Oxide – apparently uncontrollable sources – reversible response time >100 yrs

Comparative Policy Factors - 2 F CFCs – emissions already controlled – Net radiative forcing small – reversible response time 50 yrs F Sulfur emissions – controlled in some countries – negative greenhouse effect, regional – magnitude poorly known – response immediate

Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

Perspectives on Policy Bretherton, F.PBretherton, F.P : 1994, Ambio, 23, 96-97

Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

Possible Actions F Reduce CO 2, Methane emissions – Raise price carbon fuels – Encourage efficiency, alternatives – Focus on “no regrets” actions F Wait and see what happens – Risk worse consequences – Rest of the world will not act without U.S. participation

Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

Framework Convention on Climate Change F An agreement in principle among governments and a process for further negotiation F Signed: Rio de Janeiro 1992 F “Conference of the Parties-3”: Kyoto, 1997 F COP-4: Buenos Aires, Nov 1998 F COP-6: The Hague, Nov 2000, Jun 2001 F United Nations Secretariat

Kyoto Protocol F Commitments by developed countries only F Greenhouse gas emissions only F Offsets deferred for further study F U.S. commitment for – less than 93% of 1990 F Full text Full text Full text

Kyoto Protocol-1 The Parties to this Protocol, Being Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, hereinafter referred to as "the Convention", In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in its Article 2, Recalling the provisions of the Convention, Being guided by Article 3 of the Convention, Pursuant to the Berlin Mandate adopted by decision 1/CP.1 of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention at its first session, Have agreed as follows: Full TextFull Text

Big Issues in International Negotiations F Who pays? – Initially developed countries only F How to define compliance? – Fossil fuel can be monitored – Offsets from reforestation hard to measure F Developing countries other priorities – Small users now BUT – Rest of world emissions expected to pass developed countries around 2025 F Minimizing impact on economic activity – Joint implementation

U.N. Framework Convention for Climate Change F What’s New

U.S. National Activity  U.S. Global Change Research Program ( )  Kyoto Protocol requires ratification by senate  Climate Change Action Plan Plan – “ actions/national/ccap/ccap.html” actions/national/ccap/ccap.htmlhttp:// actions/national/ccap/ccap.html – Kyoto targets not being met so far

Is the U.S. Meeting its Kyoto Commitments? F Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Kyoto Protocol Annex 1 1,516

U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases F Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency

Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

The Third Planet from the Sun

Sources of Information F Brown, … Chapter 8 F U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change F U.S. Environmental Protection Agency