Use of dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in abundance of upper trophic level species Michael Scott Sherburne Cassidy D Peterson Robert J Latour.

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Presentation transcript:

Use of dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in abundance of upper trophic level species Michael Scott Sherburne Cassidy D Peterson Robert J Latour

Background Shark population declines (1970s – 1990s) – Increased commercial and recreational fishery – K-selected life history Shark Fishery Management Plan (NMFS 1993) Musick et al Baum et al. 2003

Motivation Conservative management Shark stock assessments require catch-based indices of abundance – Problems: Species ranges are large Sharks are migratory with sex- and size-specific movements Surveys are localized flmnh.ufl.edu Sandbar

Motivation: Sandbar Stock Assessment SEDAR

MOTIVATING QUESTIONS: CAN WE COMPILE THESE CONFLICTING INDICES OF ABUNDANCE INTO A REPRESENTATIVE TREND OF ABUNDANCE OVER THE SAMPLED DISTRIBUTION? DO BROAD-SCALE COVARIATES AFFECT THESE ABUNDANCES?

Data Sources

1 Baremore and Hale SEDAR Sminkey and Musick Carlson et al Castro Branstetter Joung et al Castro Carlson and Baremore Kneebone et al Drymon et al Castro Driggers et al. 2004b 14 Driggers et al. 2004a 15 Carlson et al Sulikowski et al Frazier et al Frazier et al Manire et al Carlson and Parsons Lombardi-Carlson et al Castro Frazier et al Carlson and Baremore 2003 * Note that samples for this study were taken in waters off of Taiwan; study that estimated the reproductive cycle of spinner sharks within American waters. † Finetooth life history parameters estimated from fish within the Gulf of Mexico indicate slightly smaller, faster maturing fish (Carlson et al. 2003). Female Life History Parameters von Bertalanffy parameters SpeciesA 50% A MAX Repro. Cycle FecundityL∞L∞ K LARGE COASTAL SHARKS Sandbar14 yrs 1 27 yrs yrs 1 8 pups cm PCL / yr 3 Blacktip: Atl.7 yrs 4 22 yrs 4 2 yrs 5 4 pups cm FL / yr 4 Blacktip: GOM6 yrs 4 17 yrs 4 2 yrs 5 4 pups cm FL / yr 4 Spinner7-8 yrs 6 20 yrs 6 2 yrs 7 *6-8 pups cm FL / yr 9 Tiger10 yrs yrs 10 2 yrs 8 41 pups cm FL / yr 10 SMALL COASTAL SHARKS Finetooth6.3 yrs 11† 18.2 yrs 11† 2 yrs 12 4 pups cm FL 11† 0.19 / yr 11† Blacknose: Atl.4.5 yrs yrs 13,16 2 yrs 13 5 pups cm FL / yr 14 Blacknose: GOMNA16 yrs 15 1 yr 16 3 pups –124.1 cmFL –0.35 / yr 15 Bonnethead: Atl.6.7 yrs yrs 17 1 yr 18 9 pups cm FL / yr 17 Bonnethead: GOM 3-4 yrs yrs 20 1 yr pups cm TL / yr 20 Atlantic Sharpnose3 yrs yrs 23 1 yr pups cm TL / yr 24

1. Indices of abundance Standardize CPUE for changes in catchability via generalized linear models (GLMs) Zero inflation Models fit: 1.Delta-lognormal 2.Hurdle Poisson / negative binomial 3.Zero-inflated Poisson / negative binomial Michael Scott Sherburne

2. Dynamic Factor Analysis Relative abundance (from each survey) Common trends (Factors) Factor loadings CovariatesDesign matrix Observation Error Process Error

2. Dynamic Factor Analysis

Potential DFA Covariates: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Species landings* “NAO timeseries 1856-present" by Rosentod, Marsupilami Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia; "AMO timeseries 1856-present" by Rosentod, Marsupilami Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Data provided by NOAA/OAR/Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at

Potential DFA Covariates: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Species landings* “NAO timeseries 1856-present" by Rosentod, Marsupilami Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia; "AMO timeseries 1856-present" by Rosentod, Marsupilami Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Data provided by NOAA/OAR/Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at

RESULTS: SANDBAR SHARK CJ Sweetman

Sandbar Shark: Indices of Abundance

Index TypeCovariance StructureCommon TrendsCovariate Delta-Lognormaldiagonal and equal2None Hurdlediagonal and equal1None Zero Inflateddiagonal and unequal1None

Sandbar Shark: Fitted trends D-logHurdle Zero- infl VIMS LL GA LL SC LL SEAMAP Trawl SEFSC LL

Conclusions Choice of CPUE standardization method doesn’t change resulting common trend Climatic indices don’t seem to significantly influence shark population trends Shark populations are recovering; management seems to be effective Following Azevedo et al. (2008), could we use common trends as inputs in stock assessment in place of conflicting indices of abundance?

Acknowledgements SEFSC LL: Trey Driggers GULFSPAN GN: Dana Bethea GA Red Drum LL: Carolyn Belcher SC Red Drum LL: Erin Levesque; Bryan Frazier SEAMAP Trawl: – Data for GA LL, SC LL, & SEAMAP Trawl from Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP.org)

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