1. Change in Ocean Surface Thermal Habitat in a Continental Shelf Marine Ecosystem and Its Affect on Lower Trophic Level Organisms Kevin Friedland, Joe Kane, Janet Nye, Jon Hare, John Manderson, Michael Fogarty

2. From: “Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States” Friedland and Hare, 2007

3. ERSST Cells Representing the Northeast Shelf

4. Average SST for the Northeast Shelf, 1854-2011

5. Minima and Maxima SST for the Northeast Shelf, 1854-2011

6. Thermal Habitat Area of the ocean surface within a temperature range

7. Extraction Region for Thermal Habitat Analysis

8. Annual Distribution of Thermal Habitats for the Northeast Shelf

9. Principal Components of Thermal Habitats

10. Frequency Distribution of Thermal Habitats

11. Time Series of Thermal Habitats by PC Groupings Mann-Kendall Test of Time Series Trend Thermal HabitatTested Range (°C)Trendp 1-4Upward0.093 5-10Downward0.006 11-15Downward0.005 16-20Upward0.082 21-27Upward0.001

12. Northeast Shelf Plankton Surveys

13. Spatial Distribution of Plankton Samples (binned by 0.1°)

14. Temporal Distribution of Plankton Samples and SST

15. Principal Zooplankton Species Pseudocalanus spp: P. moultoni and P. newmani

16. Mean Latitudinal Catch Trends for Principal Zooplankton Species Spring Fall Spring, Pseudocalanus spp Fall, Centropages typicus Fall, Centropages hamatus

17. Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Using data for Feb-April (36-43°N) as indicative of spring and September-November (37-44°N) as fall, calculate the CPUE by latitudinal bins, including zero tows, then calculate the CPUE weighted latitude of the distribution. Difference between the spring and fall meant to represent the annual distributional excursion. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Using data post-stratified by 1° bins for Feb-April (bins with 28 of 31 years of data and year with at least 27 bins) as indicative of spring and September-November (same except at least 26 bins) as fall, calculate the bin CPUE, if CPUE>0.1 of season mean CPUE, sum the bin area. Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort Using data post-stratified by 1° bins for Feb-April (bins with 28 of 31 years of data and year with at least 27 bins) as indicative of spring and September-November (same except at least 26 bins) as fall, calculate the bin size-weighted CPUE, including zero tows, then log transform and take Z-score.

18. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort

19. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort

20. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort

21. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort

22. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort

23. Realized Habitats of Seasonal Distributions Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal Distributions Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit Effort

24. “The U.S. GLOBEC Georges Bank Program [1994-1999] is a large multi- disciplinary multi-year oceanographic effort. The proximate goal is to understand the population dynamics of key species on the Bank - Cod, Haddock, and two species of zooplankton (Calanus finmarchicus and Pseudocalanus) - in terms of their coupling to the physical environment and in terms of their predators and prey. The ultimate goal is to be able to predict changes in the distribution and abundance of these species as a result of changes in their physical and biotic environment as well as to anticipate how their populations might respond to climate change.”

25. From: “A synthesis of large-scale patterns in the planktonic prey of larval and juvenile cod (Gadus morhua)” Heath and Lough 2007

26. Cod Recruits to SSB Ratio

27. Cod Recruits versus SSB

28. Spatial Distribution of Cod (from GMRI)

29. Four Index Areas to Characterize Cod, Pseudocalanus spp, and C. finmarchicus CPUE Georges Bank (GB), Northern GOM (NGOM), Southern GOM (SGOM), Southern New England (SNE)

30. Normalized spring cod, Pseudocalanus spp, and C. finmarchicus CPUE

31. Summary There has been a condensation of the principal thermal habitats (5-15°C) of the Northeast Shelf ecosystem, and an expansion of the warm water thermal habitats (16-27°C). The condensation of principal habitats has been intensified by the maintenance of cold water habitats (1-4°C) in the system. Lower trophic level organisms, comprising species that are the principal prey of the early life forms of upper trophic level organisms, have responded to the change in thermal habitat. Moist notably, the copepod Pseudocalanus spp has declined in abundance commensurate with a reduction of their thermal habitat. Pseudocalanus spp along with Calanus finmarchicus are the principal prey of larval cod. The recruit/SSB ratio for cod has declined for the Gulf of Maine stock and is difficult to interpret for the Georges Bank stock. A finer scale spatial analysis suggests that where Pseudocalanus spp has declined cod has not responded to management measures and where Pseudocalanus spp has remained abundant, cod has recovered to higher stock levels.