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SEDAR 42: US Gulf of Mexico Red grouper assessment Review Workshop Data inputs SEFSC July 14 - 16, 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "SEDAR 42: US Gulf of Mexico Red grouper assessment Review Workshop Data inputs SEFSC July 14 - 16, 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 SEDAR 42: US Gulf of Mexico Red grouper assessment Review Workshop Data inputs SEFSC July 14 - 16, 2015

2 SEDAR 42 Red Grouper Assessment Data inputs Assessment model configuration Model fit to data Model diagnostics Stock status determination Projections U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

3 Data inputs Landings Handline: 1986-2013 Longline: 1986-2013 Trap: 1986-2006 Charter/Headboat/Private: 1986-2013 Discards Handline: 2007-2013 (observer program)* Longline: 2007-2013 (observer program)* Trap: (self reported)* Charter/Headboat/Private: 1986-2013 Length composition of discards Handline: 2006-2013 (observer program) Longline: 2006-2013 (observer program) Charter: 2010-2013 (observer program) Headboat: 2005-2007, 2009-2013 (observer program) Age composition of retained catch Handline: 1991-2013 Longline: 1991-2013 Charter/Headboat/Private: 1991-2013 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 Abundance indices Handline: 1993-2009** Longline: 1993-2009** Charter/Private: 1986-2013 Headboat: 1986-2013 Combined video survey: 1993-1997, 2002, 2004- 2013*** SEAMAP summer groundfish survey: 2009-2013 NMFS bottom longline survey: 2001, 2003-2013 Length composition of fishery-independent indices Combined video survey: 2008-2013 SEAMAP summer groundfish survey: 2009-2013 NMFS bottom longline survey: 2001-2013

4 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4 Data inputs

5 Landings Commercial Fleets Handline (1986-2013) Longline (1986-2013) Trap (1986-2006) Recreational Fleets Charter/Private: (1986 – 2013) Headboat: (1986 – 2013) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

6 Commercial landings Data Sources Accumulated landings system (ALS) Florida trip ticket Florida landings Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) Program Landings in IFQ years U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

7 Mean annual commercial trips by area U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7 1993-19981999-2004 2005-20092010-2013

8 Mean annual commercial landings by area U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 1993-19981999-2004 2005-20092010-2013

9 Commercial landings Longline predominant fishery followed by handline and trap Longline and handline landings similar at start and end of time-series Longline landings ~2x greater than handline between 1993 and 2005 Trap landings drop to zero after 2006 Outlawed fishing practice U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

10 Recreational landings Data sources: Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) and Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP) Provides estimates for all recreational modes except headboat after 1986 Covers Florida to Louisiana Southeast Region Headboat Survey (SRHS) logbook program U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

11 Recreational landings Majority of recreational landings are from the Charter/Private fleet Charter/Private landings show high variability with periods of higher and lower average landings U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

12 Commercial and recreational landings Predominant fleets are commercial longline and handline, and recreational charter/private ~76% commercial ~24% recreational U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12 Avg ~ 43% Avg ~ 26% Avg ~ 22.5% Avg ~ 0.9% Avg ~ 7.2%

13 Discards Commercial Trap 1990-2005 Commercial HL & LL1993-2013 Recreational Charter/Private1986-2013 Recreational Headboat1986-2013 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

14 Commercial Trap Discards (1990-2006) Self-reported effort 1990-2006 Self-reported discard rate 2001-2006 Method from SEDAR12 update (2009) Discards = Self. Reported Rate * Annual Total Effort (by strata: targeting only significant factor/strata in GLM) 1990-2000 : Average rate for 2001-2006 2001-2006 : Annual rates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

15 Preliminary estimates based on SEDAR update Commercial HL and LL Discards (1993-2013) Self-reported total effort 1993-2013 Observed discard rate 2007-2013 Preliminary discard estimation method: Discards = Obs. Discards Rate * Annual Total Effort (by strata: gear, area, size limit, season, allocation, depth) 1993-2006 : Average rates for 2007-2009 (Pre-IFQ) 2007-2013: Annual rates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

16 Preliminary estimates based on SEDAR update Commercial HL and LL Discards (1993-2013) Discards = Obs. Discards Rate * Annual Total Effort DW recommended exploring total effort To do so, calculated observer landings were compared to official estimated landings for HL and LL (next slide): Obs. Calculated landings = Obs. Kept Rate * Total Effort Based on results, HL and LL estimates of total effort were deemed unreliable U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

17 Preliminary estimates based on SEDAR update Commercial HL and LL Discards (1993-2013) Official landings compared to calculated landings Obs. Calculated landings = Obs. Kept Rate * Total Effort U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17 ~ 5x ~ 2/3 most years

18 Commercial HL and LL Discards (1993-2013) Official landings by strata 1993-2013 Observer discard and kept rates2007-2013 Current discard estimation method: (by strata: year, subregion, season, fishery, allocation) 1993-2006 : Average rates for 2007-2009 (Pre-IFQ) 2007-2013: Annual rates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18

19 Commercial HL and LL Discards (1993-2013) Strata 1993-2006 : subregion, season, fishery 2007-2013 : year, subregion, season, fishery, allocation U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19 Subregion East, West Season Open season, Closed Season IFQ allocation None, 1+ Pounds, applicable to 2009-2013 only Fishery shark or reef fish, applicable to bottom longline only Commercial discards for present assessment were substantially higher than commercial discards in previous assessments.

20 Commercial HL and LL Discards (1993-2013) Compared to 2009 SEDAR Estimates (1993-2008) New method leads to larger estimated of discards High discards are supported by high discard fractions on observed trips U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20

21 Commercial discards Longline over 50% of annual discards Except 2009 and 2010 At its highest in 1996, trap 22% of annual discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21

22 Recreational Charter/Private Discards (1986-2013) Self-reported discards 1986-2013 1986-2013: estimated/adjusted in the same manner as self-reported landings U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22

23 Recreational Headboat Discards (1986-2013) Self-reported landings/discards CB proxy1986-2006 Self-reported HB discards and landings2007-2013 Observed data 2007-2013 2007-2013: Self-reported discards validated by obs. data 1986-2006: Charterboat proxy: U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23 2007-20131986-2006

24 Recreational Discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24

25 Discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25 49%53% 12%18% 33%26% 1.5%0% 4%2.5% ‘93-’06‘07-13

26 Discard Mortality FleetData SourceDiscard RateSensitivity Rates Recreational FleetsFWC Obs. Program11.6% 5.8%, 14.5% Commercial HLFWC Obs. Program (41-50m only)19%10.0%, 31.0% Commercial LL Pre-IFQNMFS Obs. Program41.4%34.3%, 48.7% Commercial LL Post-IFQNMFS Obs. Program43.6%36.7%, 50.8% Commercial Trap*SEDAR update 2009*10% U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26 *No new data on discard mortality rates available. 10% used in past assessments (2002, 2006, and 2009) FWC Observer Program2009-2013 NMFS Observer Program2006-2013

27 Indices of abundance Indices working group recommended four fishery- dependent indices and three fishery-independent indices for use in the assessment model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27

28 Indices of abundance U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28 Fishery-dependent Commercial handline (1993-2009) Commercial longline (1993-2009) Charter/Private (1986-2013) Headboat (1986-2013) Fishery-independent SEAMAP summer groundfish survey: 2009- 2013 NMFS bottom longline survey: 2001, 2003- 2013 Combined video survey: 1993-1997, 2002, 2004-2013 SEAMAP video: 1993-1997, 2002, 2004-2013 PC Lab video: 2005-2013 FWRI video: 2008-2013 PC lab video FWRI video SEAMAP video Fishery-dependent indices, SEAMAP summer groundfish, & NMFS bottom longline

29 Fishery-dependent indices U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29

30 Indices Fishery-dependent U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30

31 Fishery-independent indices U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31

32 Indices Fishery-independent U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 32

33 Age composition Data sources Commercial fleets (1991-2013) Trip Interview Program (TIP) Recreational fleets (1991-2013 ) MRFSS/MRIP SRHS GulfFIN TIP U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 33

34 Age composition U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 34 Commercial HandlineCommercial LonglineCommercial Trap Charter/PrivateHeadboat 5 -11 6 -11 6 -10 5 - 9

35 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 35 Age composition Cohort Commercial HandlineCommercial LonglineCommercial Trap Charter/PrivateHeadboat 1988, 1995, 1998, 2001, 20051998, 2001, 2005 1989, 1995, 1998, 20051989, 1998, 2005

36 Length composition Data Sources Discards NMFS Observer Program Commercial handline (2006 - 2013) Commercial longline (2006 - 2013) FWRI At-Sea Observer Survey Charter (2010 - 2013) Headboat (2005 - 2007, 2009 - 2013) Fishery-independent surveys Video surveys (2008 – 2013) SEAMAP summer groundifsh survey (2008 - 2013) NMFS bottom longline survey (2001 - 2013) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 36

37 Length composition - discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 37 20 inch TL size limit 18 inch TL size limit Commercial HandlineCommercial Longline IFQ program CharterHeadboat

38 Length composition – Fishery independent surveys U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 38 Combined video 20 – 100 cm FL SEAMAP summer groundfish 0 – 80 cm FL NMFS bottom longline 30 – 90 cm FL

39 EXTRA SLIDES U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 39

40 Combined video index Standardization method Poisson sub-model for nonzero data Binomial sub-model for presence-absence data U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 40 PC Lab FWRI SEAMAP

41 Standardization methods Delta-lognormal model (Lo et al., 1992 ) Commercial handline Charter/Private Headboat SEAMAP summer groundfish survey NMFS bottom longline survey Lognormal model Commercial longline (high proportion of positive trips) Delta-Poisson model Combined video survey U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 41

42 Indices U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 42 commHLcommLLMRFSSHBVideoNMFS_BLLSEAMAP_GF commHL 1 commLL 0.561 CBT_PR 0.430.181 HB 0.570.600.181 Video -0.130.180.170.371 NMFS-BLL -0.28-0.250.450.170.601 SEAMAP- GF --0.31-0.80-0.57-0.241

43 Discard Fractions Discard fractions from commercial observer data: LL: 0.3-0.74depending on strata HL:0.00-1.00 depending on strata Discard fractions calculated from annual recreational landings and discards estimates HB: 0.88 mean annual fraction discarded CBT/PRI: 0.31 mean annual fraction discarded U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 43

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