State of the FEWS Art/Science New questions October 2012

Where does FEWS NET stand as a function? FEWS never healthier: Horn famine Sahel crisis/conflict Southern African segue

Why is FEWS healthy? Due to what? 1.Credibility: We don’t benefit from the content of our analyses 2.We have questions; our science listens, and helps provide approaches and answers to them 3.Science meeting: what unanswered questions; what science opportunities?

Science in service to FEWS NET Recent examples

For specified areas, what are the patterns and likelihood that recent observed climate patterns and trends may persist into the next programming horizon?

In countries where climate adaptation activities may be funded, what are the likely climate change hot-spots/cold spots/same spots, over the next programming horizon? What guidance can we give?

Percent Change of Number of Malnourished Children , from Child Malnutrition and Climate in Sub-Saharan Africa: An analysis of recent trends in Kenya, by Kathryn Grace, Frank Davenport and Chris Funk, University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of Geography What then?

Using Observed Warming to Identify Hazards to Mozambique Maize Production, by Laura Harrison, et al

A FEWS NET Science product

2012: Some New FEWS NET Needs

Integrated drought impact archive Most important shock to food security in almost all of the food insecure/vulnerable countries FEWS monitors No useful archive of drought, anywhere Standard Indicator of drought hazard impacts, risk Targeting of assistance and adaptation response Baseline to measure important changes in phenomenon Basis for transfer of risk Platform for forecast/prediction

Pegging potential response programming to tangible drought impacts Immediately at harvest, or before, define implications of harvest for potential response programming (impacts, people affected, locations, etc.) Gap in current EW guidance Provide a more realistic envelope for potential response programming.

Drought in Angola!!! Help!!!

Household experience of hunger is only seen indirectly

Direct measure of hunger: Household hunger scale Is there a human experience of hunger: similarly perceived cross-culturally? 3 questions: 1. In the past 4 weeks (30 days), was there ever no food to eat of any kind in your house because of lack of resources to get food? 2. In the past 4 weeks (30 days), did you or any household member go to sleep at night hungry because there was not enough food? 3. In the past 4 weeks (30 days), did you or any household member go a whole day and night without eating anything because there was not enough food? Let’s collect, and relate to other indicators

Price volatility as a fundamental indicator of food insecurity? Changes in prices, volatility, may be a more impactful driver of food insecurity than high food prices?? No current monitoring Can this help identify, early, markets in which food access conditions are starting to be challenged by changing supply/demand, policy, other factors?

Actual Sahelian price volatility

Spatial patterns of markets and trade Patterns of movement of prices across space may reveal important market and trade drivers, and important anomalies in the operation of this critical feature of food security/insecurity. Causality of malnutrition At least half of current load of malnutrition in Africa not immediately due to a lack of calories, but to poor water quality; malaria, childcare practices. If we intend to treat malnourishment, then need to distinguish between potential causes.

Crowd analysis and data collection We all have too much to do with current personnel resources. And, we have an increasing need for more data at smaller scales. Where/how does this crunch end? The responsible parties to assure national food security should not be FEWS, the UN, etc. How does one build national and regional institutional capabilities to replace FEWS NET, WFP, FAO, IFPRI, Oxfam, etc? Building national & regional capabilities

Privileges, pleasures and thanking yourself and others you work with