Emerging Developments & Issues - Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight Dr Andy Quinn Saturn SMS Ltd, UK & Chair of the Suborbital Safety Technical Committee for the IAASS ICAO REMAT Montreal, Canada 24 May 2013

Introduction Suborbital Players, Spaceports & P2P The problem The Issue – how to Regulate Aviation Acceptable Level of Safety (ALOS) UAS Levels of Safety Previous NASA Spaceflight Levels of Safety Relevance to Commercial Spaceflight Proposed standards & ALOS for suborbital (from the IAASS) Conclusions Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

The Players Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

Emerging Spaceports Many in the US (Mojave, Edwards AFB, Spaceport America, Oklahoma, West Texas, Spaceport Florida, California Spaceport, Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, etc.) Sweden Singapore Abu Dhabi Spain Hokkaido, Japan Curacao Korea Ibaraki, Japan Malaysia Lelystad NL 24/05/2013

Point to Point Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

(with new industry with complex & novel technology) The Problem (with new industry with complex & novel technology) Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

Risk A new product, a new market …… Product Market Present New Present Increasing Risk Present Market New Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013 7

How Safe is Safe Enough? Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

The Issue - How to Regulate Current suborbital frameworks include Launch Licensing versus Certification i.e. the US way or the (possible) European way Regulation should accommodate the types of suborbital vehicles and understand the risks i.e. the US and those Nations with remote/restricted areas can accommodate Vertical Launch as well as the winged vehicles Harmonization with safety requirements & safety targets should be answer – this would be a suitable International solution for suborbital players Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

Aviation Acceptable Levels of Safety (ALOS) Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

Aviation ALOS Commercial Aviation historical accident rates derived a worldwide accident rate of 1x10-6 (1 in 1 million) per flying hour – this is the ALOS Current achieved rate is 0.1x10-6 pfh IATA figures say current rate is 2.7 accidents per million flights Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

UAS ALOS UAS regulatory framework is complex and immature BUT still demands certification to an Equivalent Level of Safety (ELOS) to that of aircraft for platforms above 150kg This means for the Remote Piloted Aircraft (RPA) they must meet requirements of AC23.1309 - the ALOS (i.e. the derived catastrophic safety target and not the individual safety objectives) for Part 23 aircraft is 1x10-4 per flying hour (for GA aircraft) and 1x10-5 for newly built Class I aircraft (under 2751kg) – noted that the RPA is only part of the System

Previous Spaceflight Achieved Rates Space Shuttle – at the last flight the achieved accident rate was 1 in 90 (1.1x10-2 per mission) Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

US Commercial Spaceflight Safety Criteria The Expected Casualty (Ec) ‘acceptable objective’ probability value is 30x10-6 per mission This is 30 times worse than the AC 23.1309 (implicit) safety target (ALOS) for aircraft-based vehicles (noted that the Ec is based on exposure over populated flight path and relates to safety of the non-involved public on the ground) So, is this ALOS applicable to the Operators such as Virgin Galactic or indeed Blue Origin today? (who will not fly over populated areas) – what about the safety of those on board? FAA-AST looking at future requirements for crew & participants – hopefully hear about that progress later in this REMAT conference Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

NASA ALOS NASA’s new CCTS Programme has provided safety targets (ALOS): a. The Loss of Crew (LOC) probability distribution for the ascent phase of a 210 day ISS mission shall have a mean value no greater than 1 in 1000 b. The LOC probability distribution for the reentry phase of a 210 day ISS mission shall have a mean value no greater than 1 in 1000 c. The LOC probability distribution for a 210 day ISS mission shall have a mean value no greater than 1 in 270 (3.7x10-3) The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel said this is a concern (3 times less safe than the Constellation program) Although 1 in 270 sounds a lot, it depends on the number of spaceflights (missions) per year – if there were roughly 1 mission per month then one accident roughly every 20 years MAY be acceptable to society and the regulator (however space accidents are usually spectacularly catastrophic disasters and grab the headlines (and stick with the industry) more than aviation disasters). BUT Space Shuttle Columbia occurred nearly 20 years on from Challenger and the Shuttle was retired. So either the flights need to be restricted to half i.e. 1 every other month or a maximum of 6 per year (meaning one accident every 40 years) OR the technology requires to be better and a stricter target applied (1 in 1000 for the total mission – per Constellation program, not 1 in 270). Restricting flights may be extremely difficult because NASA will no doubt contract to more than one operator i.e. SpaceX is the only player with the technology at the moment but Boeing, Mastens Space, Astium etc all have vehicles in development and so commercially there will be more flights per year (that NASA certify and the FAA-AST regulate). Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

IAASS Spaceflight Safety Target The International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS) comprise members from Industry and have provided an IAASS-ISSB Space Safety Standard manual: Safety Risk target for Orbital - probability of catastrophic event 1x10-3 per mission (ALOS) Safety Risk target for Sub-Orbital - probability of catastrophic event 1x10-4 per mission (ALOS) – this target was further rationalised and accepted within the Suborbital Safety TC proposed standards & guidelines Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

ALOS 3.7x10-3 NASA Orbital safety target (per total mission) Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

Conclusions The regulators should have a harmonized approach (between US and Europe) for international suborbital players The regulators of new vehicles within new or existing domains (orbital, suborbital, P2P & UAS) should derive an ALOS based on existing methods and statistics BUT rationalised and tailored to their industry…… and tailored to the vehicle types and areas of operation because; New product, new market (and new environment) = increased risk So, in conclusion, Dr Andy Quinn Emerging Developments & Issues – Suborbital Commercial Spaceflight 24/05/2013

Thank you Dr Andy Quinn ICAO REMAT Montreal, Canada 24 May 2013 andyquinn@saturnsms.com ICAO REMAT Montreal, Canada 24 May 2013