2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere NOAA Administrator June 6, 2007 Partnership For Disaster Response Task Force Meeting

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season produced 9 named storms, of which five became hurricanes and two became major hurricanes. No hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2006.

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 3 Named Storms: Hurricanes: 7-10 Major Hurricanes: 3-5

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Atlantic Hurricane Season The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal. Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be:  The ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity)  Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean  The El Niño/La Niña cycle. Sea Surface Temperatures, 5/31/2007

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 5 Named Storms: Hurricanes: 6-9 Major Hurricanes: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season The 2007 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to be below normal. The climate patterns responsible for the expected 2007 activity are:  The ongoing multi-decadal signal  The El Niño/La Niña cycle Sea Surface Temperatures, 5/31/2007

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 7 Summary