Slide 1 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov. 2014 The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project 1 “Bridging the gap between weather and climate”

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Presentation transcript:

Slide 1 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project 1 “Bridging the gap between weather and climate” Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson (IRI)

Slide 2 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov Mission Statement ● “To improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events” ● “To promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community” ● “To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services”

Slide 3 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov ● Implementation plan finalized & printed ● Terms of references have been drafted ● 5-year project, started in Nov ● Project office: KMA/NIMR hosts the project office in Jeju island. ● Trust Fund: Contributions from Australia, USA and UK S2S project status

Slide 4 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov Madden-Julian Oscillation Monsoons Africa Extremes Verification Sub-Projects S2S Database Interactions and teleconnections between midlatitudes and tropics Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Research Issues Predictability Teleconnection O-A Coupling Scale interactions Physical processes Modelling Issues Initialisation Ensemble generation Resolution O-A Coupling Systematic errors Multi-model combination Needs & Applications Liaison with SERA (Working Group on Societal and Economic Research Applications)

Slide 5 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov Madden-Julian Oscillation Monsoons Africa Extremes Verification Sub-Projects S2S Database Interactions and teleconnections between midlatitudes and tropics Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Research Issues Predictability Teleconnection O-A Coupling Scale interactions Physical processes Modelling Issues Initialisation Ensemble generation Resolution O-A Coupling Systematic errors Multi-model combination Needs & Applications Liaison with SERA (Working Group on Societal and Economic Research Applications)

Slide 6 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov ● Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts ● 3 weeks behind real-time ● Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree) ● Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture/temperature ● Archived in GRIB2 – NETCDF conversion available ● Database opened in May 2015, initially with 3 models (ECMWF, NCEP and JMA) S2S Database Description

Slide 7 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov CAWCR NCEP EC HMCR JMA KMA CMA ECMWF Météo France UKMO Data provider Archiving centre TIGGE-S2S Database 11 data providers and 2 archiving centres CNR

Slide 8 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov Time-rangeResol.Ens. SizeFreq.HcstsHcst lengthHcst FreqHcst Size ECMWF D 0-46T639/319L91512/weekOn the flyPast 20y2/weekly11 UKMO D 0-60N216L854dailyOn the fly /month3 NCEP D 0-44N126L6444/dailyFix /daily1 EC D x0.6L4021weeklyOn the flyPast 15yweekly4 BoM D 0-60T47L17332/weeklyFix /month33 JMA D 0-34T319L6050weeklyFix /month5 KMA D 0-60N216L854dailyOn the fly /month3 CMA D 0-45T106L404dailyFix1992-nowdaily4 Met.Fr D 0-60T255L9151monthlyFix monthly15 ISA-CNR D x0.56 L5440weeklyFix /month1 HMCR D x1.4 L2820weeklyFix weekly10 S2S database partners

Slide 9 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov. 2014

Slide 10 Thorpex ICSC12 and WWRP SSC7 18 Nov Areas of S2S – DAOS collaboration? ● Impact of coupled data-assimilation on S2S forecasts (more important) ● Impact of improvements in the observing system on sub-seasonal forecasts (less important) ● A workshop on coupled DA ● Identify cases (thought expts) where coupling would play a strong role at the S2S time scale (maybe MJO related?), to illustrate the concepts.