Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction Project. Index  Background  S2S Planning group  Implementation plan: - Applications - Research and modelling issues.

Published byElwin Ross Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction Project. Index  Background  S2S Planning group  Implementation plan: - Applications - Research and modelling issues."— Presentation transcript:

1 Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction Project

2 Index  Background  S2S Planning group  Implementation plan: - Applications - Research and modelling issues - S2S database - Demonstration projects  Possible links with WWRP PPP

3 Background There is a need to fill the gap between medium-range and seasonal forecasting and link the activities of WCRP and WWRP The WMO Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) requested at its 15 th session (Nov. 2009) that WCRP, WWRP and THORPEX set up an appropriate collaborative structure for sub-seasonal prediction. WCRP/WWRP/THORPEX workshop at Exeter (1-3 December 2010). A planning group has been formed in 2011 and kick-off meeting in Geneva 2-3 December 2011 An implementation plan has been written to give priority to: - The establishment of collaboration between operational centres undertaking sub- seasonal prediction for consistency and enable the production of databases of sub- seasonal predictions for standard verification procedures and research. -Facilitate the widespread research use of the data collected for CHFP, TIGGE and YOTC for research. - Sponsorship of a few international research activities - Establishment of a series of regular workshops

4 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Planning group Co-Chairs: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson (IRI) Members: Arun Kumar (NCEP) Harry Hendon (CAWCR) Yuhei Takaya (JMA) Hai Lin (EC) Alberto Arribas (UKMO) June-Yi Lee (U. Hawaii) Duane Waliser (JPL NASA) Ben Kirtman (UM RSMAS) Hyun-Kyung Kim (KMA) Liaison group: Carolina Vera (WCRP JSC Liaison) Richard Graham (UKMO, CBS) Jean-Pierre Ceron ( M é t é o-France, CCL) Barbara Brown (JWVGR) Steve Woolnough (GEWEX/GASS) David Anderson (WMO consultant)

5 Use of sub-seasonal forecasts in applications Growing, and urgent, requirement for the employment of sub-seasonal predictions for a wide range of societal and economic applications which include: Warnings of the likelihood of severe high impact weather (droughts, flooding, wind storms etc.) to help protect life and property Humanitarian Planning and Response to disasters Agriculture particularly in developing countries — e.g. wheat and rice production Disease planning/control — e.g. malaria, dengue and meningitis River-flow — for flood prediction, hydroelectric power generation and reservoir management for example

6 Opportunity to use information on multiple time scales Red Cross - IRI example

7 A particularly difficult time range: Is it an atmospheric initial condition problem as medium-range forecasting or is it a boundary condition problem as seasonal forecasting? Some sources of predictability :  Sea surface temperatures  Land surface conditions: snow-soil moisture  The Madden Julian Oscillation  Stratospheric variability  Atmospheric dynamical processes (Rossby wave propagations, weather regimes…)  Sea ice cover –thickness ? Bridging the gap between Climate and weather prediction

8 Simulation of the impact of the MJO on the NAO Lin et al, 2010

9 9 Koster et al, GRL 2010 Impact of soil moisture

10 Impact of snow initial conditions Jeong et al, Jclim 2012

11 Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001 Stratospheric influence on the troposphere?

12 Stratospheric Warming From Harry Hendon

13 Stratospheric Warming Source: NOAA

14 Scientific issues Identify sources of predictability at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time-range Prediction of the MJO and its impacts in numerical models Teleconnections - forecasts of opportunity Monsoon prediction Rainfall predictability and extreme events Polar prediction and sea-ice Stratospheric processes

15 Modelling issues Role of resolution Role of Ocean-atmosphere coupling Systematic errors Initialisation strategies for sub-seasonal prediction Ensemble generation Spread/skill relationship Design of forecast systems Verification

16 Research priorities The project will involve: evaluating the potential predictability of sub-seasonal events, including identifying windows of opportunity for increased forecast skill. Specific attention will be paid to the risk of extreme weather, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation. understanding systematic errors and biases in the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast range comparing, verifying and testing multi-model combinations from these forecasts and quantifying their uncertainty focussing on some specific extreme event case studies, such as the Russian heat wave of 2010, the Pakistan floods in 2010, Australian floods of 2011, European cold spell in 2012, as demonstration projects

17 A main recommendations from the Exeter meeting in 2010 was the establishment of a data bases of operational sub- seasonal predictions. 10 years ago, only a couple of operational centres were producing sub-seasonal forecasts. Over the past years, a few GPCs have set sub-seasonal forecasting systems. Numerical models have shown significant improvements in sub-seasonal prediction over the past years (e.g. MJO). Sub-seasonal forecast database

18 Examples of improvements in MJO prediction

19 Sub-seasonal real-time Operational Forecasts Time- range Resol.Ens. SizeFreq.HcstsHcst length Hcst FreqHcst Size ECMWFD 0-32T639/319L62512/weekOn the flyPast 18yweekly5 UKMOD 0-60N96L854dailyOn the fly1989-20034/month3 NCEPD 0-60N126L6416dailyFix1999-2010daily4 ECD 0-350.6x0.6L4021weeklyOn the flyPast 15yweekly4 CAWCRD 0-120T47L1733weeklyFix1989-20103/month33 JMAD 0-34T159L6050weeklyFix1979-20093/month5 KMAD 0-30T106L21203/monthFix1979-20103/month10 CMAD 0-45T63L16406/monthFix1982-nowmonthly48 CPTECD 0-30T126L281dailyNo--- Meteo- France D 0-60T63L9141monthlyFix1981-2005monthly11 SAWSD 0-60T42L196monthlyFix1981-2001monthly6 HMCRD 0-601.1x1.4 L2810monthlyFix1979-2003monthly10

20 Proposal for a sub-seasonal database Use TIGGE protocol (GRIB2) for archiving the data. The data should also be available in NETCDF for the WCRP community. Archive daily means of real-time forecasts + reforecasts. Real-time forecasts 3 or 4 weeks behind real-time Variables archived: most of TIGGE variables + ocean variables and stratospheric levels 1.5x1.5 degree grid or lower once a week. Use of the first 2 months of the CHFP seasonal and climate forecasting systems to compare with the archive (above). Need for daily or weekly/pentads archive.

21 Demonstration projects A few case studies to demonstrate that using sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions could be of benefit to society. Cases studies could include: Pakistan floods (2010) concurrent with the Russian heat wave Australian floods (2009 or 2011) European Cold spell (2011) At least one of the demonstration projects should be in real-time, which is often the best way to foster collaborations between the research and application communities. The models could be archived near real-time during a limited period of time with additional fields being archived. The period chosen could coincide with test bed studies from other projects (e.g. polar project).

22 22 Precip anomalies : 26 July– 01 August 2010 Sub-seasonal Prediction of Pakistan Floods (2010)

23 Recent developments The WMO executive council has approved the creation of a sub- seasonal to seasonal prediction project. It also approved the creation of a project office and a trust fund for sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. The project will last 5 years, starting in 2013 with the option to extend based on a review of progress, achievements and remaining gaps. Next S2S meeting in February: - Finalize the definition of the database - Identify demonstration projects - Plan a workshop on "Sources of predictability at the subseasonal timescale- windows of opportunity for applications"

24 Possible links with PPP Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of sea-ice cover Teleconnections from the polar regions Model errors in the polar regions

25 UnitAbbrev.Descript10009258505003002001005010 Geop. heightgpmghInst. 00Zxxxxxxxxx Spec. humidityKg/kgqInst. 00Zxxxxxx TemperatureKtInst 00Zxxxxxxxxx Um/suInst 00Zxxxxxxxxx Vm/svInst 00Zxxxxxxxxx

26 UnitAbbreviationDescription Potential vorticity at 320KK m 2 kg -1 s -1 pvInst 00Z 10 metre Um s -1 10uInst 00Z 10 metre Vm s -1 10vInst 00Z CAPEJ kg -1 capeDaily Av. 4x Land-sea maskProportionlsmOnce OrographygpmorogOnce Skin temperatureKsktDaily Av. 4x Snow depth water equivalentkg m -2 sdDaily Av. 4x Snow fall water equivalentkg m -2 sfAccumulated Soil moisturekg m -3 smDaily Av. 4x Surf. Air Max. Temp.KMx2t6Daily Max. Surf. Air. Min. Temp.KMn2t6Daily Min. Surf. Air. Temp.K2tDaily Av. 4x Surf. PressurePaSpDaily Av. 4x Outgoing long-wave radia.W m -2 sttrAccumulated Surface latent heat fluxW m -2 sshlfAccumulated Surface net solar radiationW m -2 sssrAccumulated Surface net thermal radia.W m -2 sstrAccumulated Surface sensible heat fluxW m -2 ssshfAccumulated Total cloud cover%tccDaily Av. 4x Total column waterkg m -2 tcwDaily Av. 4x Total precipitationkg m -2 tpAccumulated Convective Precipitationkg m -2 cpAccumulated North-South surface stressN m -2 snsssAccumulated East-west surface stressN m -2 sewssAccumulated Mean sea-level pressurePamslDaily Av. 4x

27 UnitAbbreviationDescription Sea surface temperatureKsstk Daily Av. 4x Sea surface salinitypsussts Daily Av. 4x Depth of the 20 deg isoth.m20d Daily Av. 4x Sea ice coverProportionci Daily Av. 4x Heat content top 300mDegrees Ctav300 Daily Av. 4x Salinity in top 300mpsusav300 Daily Av. 4x U surface currentm s -1 u Daily Av. 4x V surface currentm s -1 v Daily Av. 4x Sea surface heightmslDaily Av. 4x

Download ppt "Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction Project. Index  Background  S2S Planning group  Implementation plan: - Applications - Research and modelling issues."

Similar presentations

WWRP THORPEX PDP WORKING GROUP MEETING 5.15 pm Tuesday 21 June (Buffet Supper) 6.00 pm Meeting Starts ECMWF Meeting Room 1 OFFICE BLOCK EXTENSION.

WWRP THORPEX PDP WORKING GROUP MEETING 5.15 pm Tuesday 21 June (Buffet Supper) 6.00 pm Meeting Starts ECMWF Meeting Room 1 OFFICE BLOCK EXTENSION.
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (1-90 days) -

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (1-90 days) -
Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction Project. Index Background Implementation Plan : Applications Scientific and modelling issues Database Demonstration.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction Project. Index Background Implementation Plan : Applications Scientific and modelling issues Database Demonstration.
Discussion on applications and research projects.

Discussion on applications and research projects.
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction David Anderson.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction David Anderson.
WWRP CASNEW PROJECTS Polar Prediction project – The Commission concurred with the Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and.

WWRP CASNEW PROJECTS Polar Prediction project – The Commission concurred with the Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and.
ECMWF long range forecast systems

ECMWF long range forecast systems
WWRP The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson (IRI) 1 “Bridging the gap between weather.

WWRP The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson (IRI) 1 “Bridging the gap between weather.
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth and Philippe Bougeault, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group.

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth and Philippe Bougeault, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group.
Proposed Predictability, Dynamics & Ensemble Forecasting Expert Team Richard Swinbank, with Heini Wernli, Masayuki Kyouda and Istvan Szunyogh, and thanks.

Proposed Predictability, Dynamics & Ensemble Forecasting Expert Team Richard Swinbank, with Heini Wernli, Masayuki Kyouda and Istvan Szunyogh, and thanks.
Slide 1 TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006 Slide 1 TECO on the WIS: Stakeholder Session THORPEX and TIGGE Walter Zwieflhofer ECMWF.

Slide 1 TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006 Slide 1 TECO on the WIS: Stakeholder Session THORPEX and TIGGE Walter Zwieflhofer ECMWF.
The Activities of Tokyo Climate Center Fumio WATANABE Tokyo Climate Center Climate Prediction Division, JMA.

The Activities of Tokyo Climate Center Fumio WATANABE Tokyo Climate Center Climate Prediction Division, JMA.
The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting Nili Harnik Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,

The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting Nili Harnik Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,
The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial.

The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial.
CLIMAG LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE CHALLENGES A CLIMATE SCIENCE PERSPECTIVE By Hartmut Grassl Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, Germany.

CLIMAG LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE CHALLENGES A CLIMATE SCIENCE PERSPECTIVE By Hartmut Grassl Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, Germany.
Exeter 1-3 December 2010 Monthly Forecasting with Ensembles Frédéric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Exeter 1-3 December 2010 Monthly Forecasting with Ensembles Frédéric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Page 1GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES. Page 2GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 The ENSEMBLES Project  Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009  Supported by.

Page 1GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES. Page 2GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 The ENSEMBLES Project  Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009  Supported by.
WWRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (1-90 days) - A Seamless Approach WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP Kick off meeting on Sub- seasonal to Seasonal Prediction.

WWRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (1-90 days) - A Seamless Approach WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP Kick off meeting on Sub- seasonal to Seasonal Prediction.
WWRP Toward a Seamless Process for the Prediction of Weather and Climate: On the Advancement of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction TTISS, September 2009,

WWRP Toward a Seamless Process for the Prediction of Weather and Climate: On the Advancement of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction TTISS, September 2009,
AMS Presidential Forum January 2013© ECMWF Slide 1 Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific progress and future opportunities Alan Thorpe AMS Presidential.

AMS Presidential Forum January 2013© ECMWF Slide 1 Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific progress and future opportunities Alan Thorpe AMS Presidential.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google