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Climate Prediction Center / NCEP The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 18, 2013 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over western and eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern, central and eastern interior Australia away from the east coast.

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is showing widespread precipitation all over the middle east and across India into eastern China. However, deficits still appear along south eastern China and across north central Australia, while surpluses have emerged along east coast.

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week rainfall was above normal over northern India and Indonesia, but below normal over northern Australia, which was forecast correctly. Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.

Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

Atmospheric Circulation

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over western and eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern, central and eastern interior Australia away from the east coast. The 30-day precipitation is showing widespread precipitation all over the middle east and across India into eastern China. However, deficits still appear along south eastern China and across north central Australia, while surpluses have emerged along east coast. This past week rainfall was above normal over northern India and Indonesia, but below normal over northern Australia, which was forecast correctly. In the upcoming couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting near to below normal rainfall over the broad monsoon region at large, but over Australia, enhanced rainfall is forecast to return in the second week.

Demise of the Asian Monsoon

Onset of the Australian Monsoon

Climatology