Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, 10-12 November 2014 EcoTroph to assess changes in marine ecosystems - Application.

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Presentation transcript:

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 EcoTroph to assess changes in marine ecosystems - Application to the Bay of Biscay and Celtic sea case study - Abdelkrim Bentorcha, Didier Gascuel, Mathieu Colléter, (Agrocampus Ouest, France) Sylvie Guénette (EcOceans, Canada)

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014  The Celtic sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystem ( km2)  Landings around tons (≈ 15 % of European seas)  A decreasing fishing pressure over the last 10 years  Has the ecosystem started to recover?

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014  Synthesis of stocks assessments from ICES  Two Ecopath models 1980 and 2012 (38 groups, with details for all stocks assessed by ICES)

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014  Synthesis of stocks assessments from ICES  Two Ecopath models 1980 and 2012 (38 groups, with details for all stocks assessed by ICES)  Ecosim 1980/2012 (using time series for fishing mortalities, biomass and recruitment)  EcoTroph

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Synthesis of stock assessment  An improving trend in the mean trajectory for demersals  7 stocks still overexploited in 2013 (among 11 stocks) Stock status in 2013 Mean 1980/2012 trajectories

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Synthesis of stock assessment  An increase in the biomass of demersal fish, mainly due to hake  A declining trend for pelagics, over the past 25 years  Mackerel, then horse mackerel, and now boarfish Biomass pelagics

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Comparison 1980 / 2012 using trophic spectra  High TLs are the most targeted  Very high F_loss (from 60 to 40%)  The decrease in the fishing pressure is observed for all TLs  A decrease in catch for intermediate TLs (pelagics)  Only high TLs exhibit a (limited) increase in biomass

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Trends in recruitment  An decrease in the mean recruitment for both demersals and pelagics  Changes due to the environment?

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 EcoTroph diagnosis  High trophic classes are the most impacted (-76% in the accessible biomass for TL=4.5, comparatively to the unexploited state)  High trophic classes are still strongly overexploited in 2012  Intermediate TLs close to full exploitation Production function per TL in impact on acc.biomass per TL TL =

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 EcoTroph diagnosis  In 1980, full exploitation started at TL=3.4 (overexploitation at 4.2)  In 2012, improvement: full exploitation starts at TL=4.1 (overexpl. at 4.4)

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Ecosim: fit 1980/2012 and simulations 2013/2025 Biomass (16 time series) Catch (27 time series)  Biomass and/or catch are expected to:  decrease for: mackerel  increase for: cod, plaice, megrim, large bathypelagics  The most sensitive species to a change in the fishing pressure are:  Mackerel, horse mackerel, plaice, sole  Model driven by F (12 time series)

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Trends in trophic indicators  Mean trophic level MTL (from Ecosim) still low  High TL indicators (MTI, HTI and API) exhibit a consistent improving trend, but still below the EAFM targets (preliminary values) EAFM targets ?

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Changes in parameters of the trophic functioning  An increase in respiration  Due to changes in prey fish (from sardine, to mackerel, then to boarfish ?)  Leading to higher natural losses and lower net trophic efficiencies  An increase in kinetics  Decrease in the mean life expectancy  Faster transfers leading to lower biomass in high TLs A less efficient food web? +20% +15%

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Conclusion  A decreasing fishing pressure  Some stocks recovering, with increasing biomass  Overexploitation starting at higher TLs  Improving indicators for high TLs   Many stocks still overexploited and/or depleted, with low biomass  High TLs remain globally overexploited  A decreasing trend in recruitment  Indicators still below the EAFM targets  A less efficient food web (lower transfer efficiencies, faster transfers) A step towards the (long) way of the good environmental status

Bentorcha, Gascuel, Colléter, Guénette- Ecopath 30 years, Barcelona, November 2014 Thank you!