1. Exploring the ecological and economic role of Pacific sardine Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor and U. Rashid Sumaila Trinational Sardine Forum. La Jolla, December 8, 2011

2. Outline Fisheries in the California Current Ecosystem modeling of the BC Shelf Sardine as a forage fish Contribution of sardine to ecosystem output Summary Next steps and challenges

3. Fisheries in the California Current Economic impact of California Current fisheries by country (USD 2011). Landed values are from government statistics (CONAPESCA 2007; DFO 2008; NOAA 2008); economic impact and income effects calculated based on input-output multipliers for fisheries reported in Dyck and Sumaila (2010). Country Landings (thousands tons) Landed value (millions USD) Economic impact (millions USD) Income effect (millions USD) Canada149240794257 USA3155031,557652 Mexico817022846 Total5458142,581956 What is the contribution of sardines as forage fish in this system?

4. AreaThemeSpecies BC Shelf (Preikshot 2005 ) Ecopath approach53 Strait of Georgia (Martell et al. 2002) Ecopath for management 25 Southern BC Shelf (Venier et al. 1996) Ecopath approach27 N California Current (WA-OR-CA) (Field et al. 2006) Climate scenario analysis 63 Current Model (WCVI 3C-3D) Ecological trends and Fisheries management 33 Ecosystem modeling: BC Shelf

5. Ecosystem model: BC 33 functional groups (12 with time-series data); 10 fishing fleets; Ecosystem driven by Aleutian Low Pressure Index. Functional groupFleet OrcasPOPEulachon Hake DolphinsShelf rockfishMesopelagic fish Groundfish BirdsSlope rockfishJellyfish Herring Baleen whalesSablefishBenthos Salmon Steller sea lionPollockEuphausids Shark Harbor sealHalibutCopepods Small Pelagic Pelagic sharksFlatfishesZooplankton Sealing Small sharksHakeDiatoms Whaling SquidMackerelLarge phytoplankton Sardine (dummy) Chinook salmonSardineSmall phytoplankton Coho salmonHerringDetritus

6. Ecopath

7. Ecosim Relative biomass Catch (thousands of tons)

8. Sardines as forage fish Sardine is directly linked (predator/prey) to 19 functional groups; Highest average proportion in predator biomass among fish after herring; Trophic interactions are confounded with environmental change; Model allows us to hold the environment constant; Diet matrix and landed values can be used to calculate contribution of sardine to landed values.

9. Contribution to fisheries value Total $4,900,000 Cod-likes $339 K Scombrids $658 K Flatfishes $355 K Salmonids $1.5 M Sharks $20 K Rockfishes $1.9 M Based on Ecopath diet matrix and BC landed value Pacific Sardine

10. Contribution to ecosystem output Dynamic model: contribution of sardine to species-specific biomass and economic value.

11. Contribution to ecosystem output

13. Total ecosystem fisheries value is currently ~9.2 B USD; Including ecosystem effects, the fisheries value of an additional thousand tons of sardine is ~80 K USD.

14. Summary Ecosystem model is providing interesting results, and is closer to adequately representing observed data; Sardines contribute significantly to the ecosystem both in terms of production and subsequent fishing value; Ecosystem models are not a substitute for stock assessments, but can be used as a testing ground for hypotheses, new methodologies and interdisciplinary research.

15. Next steps Test more hypotheses for environmental drivers and ecosystem shifts; Explore mechanisms for sardine population response to environment; Validate results with observed fisheries data; Expand model to rest of California Current.

16. Acknowledgements J. Schweigert, S. McFarlane, L. Flostrand, J. Detering, J. Lenic, E. Cotero, M. Nevárez and S. Herzka; V. Christensen, C. Walters, S. Martell (Committee). a.cisneros@fisheries.ubc.ca andres.cisneros.m@gmail.com r.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca