Extreme events, Scenario Developments across Disciplines. Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State.

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Presentation transcript:

Extreme events, Scenario Developments across Disciplines. Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University NRAL Seminar, P P Shirshov Institute, Moscow March 23, Task Team on Catalogue of extreme events -Develop Scenarios for Model Runs -Next work and activities -logistics, travel, work shops -NRAL Summer-Workshop -Business: consumables, software, travel, meetings, workshops

Agenda 9.30 Coffee and snacks Peter Koltermann Introduction Sergey Gulev On which Time-Scales does the Ocean drive the Atmosphere ? Igor Zveryaev Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010: Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution» Vladimir Semenov Cold winters of the 21st century as a non-linear atmosphere circulation response to the Arctic sea ice melt Natalya TilininaIntercomparison of Cyclone Characteristics from different Methods and Products Evgenii KulikovModelling Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea Victor Arkhipkin Time series of significant wave heights on the Сaspian Sea

. Daria Gushina Synoptical situations associated to the various types of inundations in European part of Russia Inna Krylenko Flooding of the coastal zones Elena Ilyushina Calculating risk, economical and individual» Break 12:30 – 14:00 Sergey Mukhametov Report of Task Team «Catalogue of hazards of the coastal zone» Discussion with participants General Discussion -Next work and activities -logistics, travel, work shops -NRAL Summer-Workshop Any other business

Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,

Historical Data Bases Risk Assessment Coastal impacts Hazard - Uncertainty Exposure Vulnerability risk vulnerability hazard exposure The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999) Methodology Castaneda

Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up 500 years return level (m) Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year) parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006) Castaneda