1. Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change by David A.Y. Smith Smith Warner International

2. Profile of the Caribbean and Coastal Areas Greater Antilles/Lesser Antilles – based on location and geological origin All are islands with high coastline to area ratios, and are therefore particularly vulnerable to coastal hazards. Differing levels of risk across the region

3. Coastal Hazards in the Caribbean Greater Antilles (Cuba, Jamaica, Hispañola, Puerto Rico) Hurricanes Floods Earthquakes Tsunami Lesser Antilles (St. Maarten to Trinidad) Hurricanes Volcanic Eruptions (Ash fallout) Earthquakes Tsunami Over 8,000 lives lost in the Caribbean over past 30 years due to natural disasters.

4. Damage from Hurricanes Occurs primarily from: – Hurricane waves; – Beach scour and; – Storm surge.

5. Spatial Distribution of Hurricanes in the Region

6. Hurricane Waves Deep water waves resulting from hurricanes can be very damaging. Estimates of extreme (i.e. design) wave heights made throughout the region are summarized following: Island1 in 50 year Return period (m) 1 in 100 year (m) Jamaica7.68.6 Antigua13.314.9 Grenada8.19.6

7. Hurricane Waves (cont’d) Changes result from interactions between the waves and the seabed At the shoreline, they can be very damaging, breaking out infrastructure and eroding shorelines. These deep water waves change in height as they travel in to shallower water.

8. Beach Scour In a storm, high wave energy often results in severe erosion of the beach and/or shoreline. Erosion may reach up to 20-30m inland, and can totally wipe out beach areas and adjacent infrastructure.

9. Beach Scour (cont’d) Erosion is exacerbated where there are buildings (i.e. vertical walls) in the wave run- up zone. Shore protection methods must be carefully designed so as not to negatively impact adjacent shoreline areas.

10. Components of Storm Surge

12. Storm Surge, Roseau, Dominica, Hurricane Lenny High storm waves, Cayman, Hurricane Ivan Examples of Storm Surge

13. Impact of Water Level Changes Based on UN-IPCC observations and Circulation Model outputs, rates of sea level rise in the Caribbean will be 5mm/year for next 100 years; Rate will neither be uniform nor constant due to site-specific reasons (e.g. crustal emergence and/or submergence); This rate is 2 times higher than rate for the past 100 years; Low-lying beaches, terraces and plains will be more vulnerable to storm events as a result of this rise.

14. Kingston Vulnerability Source: NEPA

15. Some Issues for Concern Large percentage of Jamaica’s population (approx. 25%) and critical infrastructure is concentrated near to the coastline. There is some evidence, when the past 115 years of hurricane data is examined, that we are in a cycle with an increasing number of storms.

16. Data Collection/Gaps Water levels have been collected under the aegis of the OAS at a number of locations across the Caribbean. Many of these stations have fallen into disrepair and have not been maintained. Long-term records of water levels must be collected if we are to assess our own levels of risk and vulnerability to sea level rise. What are the present plans to commence or mainstream data collection?

17. Data Collection/Gaps (cont’d) What are the rates of accretion or erosion at our beaches in Jamaica? A programme of beach profile monitoring of beaches and/or shorelines at key points around the shoreline of Jamaica would assist in identifying a problem (or not). Given the importance of the tourism sector to our national economy, monitoring of shoreline change is required. Again, what are the present plans to commence or mainstream data collection?

18. Tsunami: another source of risk More a problem in the Lesser Antilles Caused by ocean centred earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions. Greatest risk presently posed by “Kick ‘em Jenny” SeaBeam image of Kick 'em Jenny constructed from measurements taken from the NOAA Research Vessel Ronald H. Brown on March 12 2002.

19. Tsunamis in the Caribbean: Historical Account Dates and Locations of Tsunami