1. Welcome to the Bay of Fundy MCCAP Workshop

2. 1.What question about your MCCAP do you most want to gain clarity about today? 2. What municipal decisions are you currently making that will be affected by changes in climate?

3. Workshop premised on... Climate change may exacerbate considerable geological risk for future development We can mitigate some of that risk

4. Assessing Geological Hazards 4 of 30... to develop a methodology to incorporate geology into the land use planning process Geohazards are events caused by geological features and processes that present severe threats to humans, property and the natural and built environment. Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division Geohazards?

5. Assessing Geological Hazards 4 of 30... to develop a methodology to incorporate geology into the land use planning process coastal flooding and riverine flooding coastal erosion land sinking – sinkholes contamination of water from heavy metals in soil or acid rock drainage landslides / slope failure Geo-events that pose threats Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division

6. Assessing Geological Hazards 4 of 30... to develop a methodology to incorporate geology into the land use planning process How do we realistically handle these geohazards in our MCCAPs? Geo-events that pose threats Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division

8. 2 climate drivers 1.Sea level rise 2.Changes in precipitation

9. BIO’s relative sea level rise estimates 0.4-0.9m on 50-year time scale 0.9-1.6 on 100-year time scale

11. Example from County of Colchester / Truro

12. MSC’s STORM SURGE MODEL Tell us the impacts you are seeing and at what water levels! Model based on OUTPUT WINDS

13. MSC’s STORM SURGE MODEL Map display; every hour for 48 hrs out from when model run Time series graph; point forecast for specific location. Show stage 1, 2 or 3 flooding based on past events.

14. MSC’s STORM SURGE MODEL Does NOT include wave run up Add 10% to surge levels if wind facing shoreline...... then add tide level

15. MSC’s STORM SURGE MODEL 65cm surge predicted at nearly high tide = 2.9m 75-80 cm surge experienced = so 3m + at least another 10cm for wave run up (more if wind from S/SE)

17. Observed sea level rise exceeded what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted by 50% for the period 1990– 2006. 80% of the rise in sea level between during 2003–2008 is believed to be from ice melt

20. 0.42 ± 0.15  0.57m upper uncertainty for relative SLR So use 0.57m 0.42 ± 0.15  0.57m upper uncertainty for relative SLR So use 0.57m

22. Water Surplus Water Deficit Intensity Short Period Rainfall

23. In a 20 year return period rainfall: 5% more rain by 2020s 9% more by 2050s 16% more by 2080s

29. Anne Warburton awarburton@elementalsustainability.com 902 431 7168 www.elementalsustainability.ca