 December 12 – 3:30-5:30  2 hour exam  All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward  Responsible for themes for whole course  Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from agenda and formulation forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle 2  Review session: Tu Dec 10 (Room TBA)  (whole class)  12-1 (students from whom English in not first language  Office Hours George  Monday Dec 9, 1-4  Wednesday Dec 11, and 2-4  By appointment  Office Hours Gabrielle  Friday Dec 6th, 1-4pm  Monday Dec 9th, 9-11 am  Tuesday Dec 10th, 10am-12pm

 Feedback on course  Forest policy futures  Short term ▪ BC Liberal Future ▪ What if the NDP had won?  Longer Term  Barriers to more sustainable policy  Final words

Themes Policy Content Objective: Draw out broader themes while reducing complexity Concern: Still too complex?

 Forces at work framework  How government works  Interest Groups  First Nations  International Context  US Influence  Policy Cycle  Policy Formulation  Decision-making and Policy Design  Implementation  New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy  Comparisons  Cases  Great Bear Rainforest  Mountain Pine Beetle 5 Policy Categories 1.tenure 2.Stumpage 3.Rate of harvest 4.Land Use zoning 5.Regulation of Forest Practices 6.Emergent areas – carbon, energy

 Should there be tutorials  How would you create space for them?

 Website  Facebook page  Twitter feed

 Short term  BC Liberal Future  What if the NDP had won?  Longer term

 Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson Mandate letter

 Major Campbell initiatives that seem to be continued  Greenhouse gas reductions? ▪ Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained ▪ Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG emissions  Aboriginal reconciliation – signs of move away from treaty focus but that was underway  Reorganization – process seems incomplete ▪ But bigger steps impolitic ▪ Name change?

 Current: Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations

 New funds  Expanded reforestation  Updated inventory, more R&D on adaptation  Restriction on log exports  Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities

What values will we be managing for?  Resurgent commodities  Carbon  Bioenergy  Biodiversity  Recreation  Aesthetics Governance  Corporatization  Privatization  Decentralization (Haley and Nelson’s 3 alternatives)

Great sources for BC tenure data tenures/apportionment/index.htmhttp:// tenures/apportionment/index.htm

 SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future  Economic  Environmental  Social  Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)

 Undue focus on sustained yield of timber  Insufficiently comprehensive rights  Growing trees  Multiple timber species  Energy  Non-market  Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC)  Inefficient land use zoning  Overly stringent regulation

 Integrative management of jointly produced resources  Flexibility  Innovation  Clarity

 Intellectual  Value differences  Uncertainties  Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo  Decision rule that advantage opponents to change  Institutional mismatch  Path dependence

 “once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)

 Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

 The meaning is in the detail

 Complexity  Facts and values  Steps:  Identify argument  Values underlying  Facts  Be respective of value differences  Be conscious of “motivated reasoning”  Mobilize evidence  Persuasion requires appealing to their values Steps in Policy Analysis  Define problem  Criteria for evaluation  Identify multiple alternatives  Outcomes/consequences of alternatives  Compare/tradeoff  Recommended decision