Tropical Storm Arthur – July th NWA Annual Meeting Richard Okulski, NWS WFO Caribou, Maine Tropical Storm Arthur – July 5, 2014

Overview Timing Headlines (Tropical Vs. Non-Tropical) Headline Considerations Impacts Best Practices/Lessons Learned Open Discussion With Emergency Management Community (April 2015)

Timing Timing Very Early Season Tropical Cyclone –One of the earliest on record for Maine 4 th of July Weekend –Tourists near the ocean –Rogue waves/heavy surf –Emergency response staff on vacation Busy Week Leading Up To Event Busy Week Leading Up To Event –Early season heat wave (temps in the 90s) –Severe weather on July 3 rd U.S. watches and warnings associated with Arthur on NHC Advisory 15 issued at 11 AM EDT July 4,

Weather Headlines Canadian Hurricane Center Issues Tropical Storm Watches For New Brunswick and Nova Scotia During the Evening of July 3 rd WFO Caribou In Consultation With NHC Issues High Wind Warnings During the Afternoon of July 4 th –Collaboration between WFO and NHC started on the evening of the 3rd –Track continued to shift west into the Bay of Fundy –WFO issued Non-Tropical headlines with afternoon package –Last second offer by NHC to switch to Tropical Headlines –WFO considered switch to be too confusing Canadian watches and warnings associated with Arthur at 5 AM EDT July 5,

Tropical Versus Non-Tropical? The Canadian and National Hurricane Centers Do Not Have To Issue Consistent Headlines Along the Border Arthur Forecast To Become Post Tropical In The Bay of Fundy (Verified) Situational Awareness –Do Tropical Headlines Raise Awareness More Than Non-Tropical Equivalents? –Do Tropical Headlines Make It Easier To Request Resources On A Holiday Weekend? Canadian watches and warnings associated with Arthur at 5 AM EDT July 5,

Impacts – Waves Highest Waves – Nova Scotia –Up to 25 Foot Heights Wave Heights To 15 Feet Along Downeast Coast The Morning of the 5 th –Long Period Swell To 14 Seconds –Significant Potential For Rogue Waves 2 to 3 Times The Significant Wave Height (30 to 40 Feet) Higher Than Normal Number of Tourists Near Coast For Holiday Weekend

Impacts – Wind Winds Gusts To 65 MPH Downeast Maine Wind Field Expands As Cyclone Transitions To Post Tropical On Saturday –Gusts To 50 MPH Northeast Aroostook and Southern Penobscot Counties Worst Warm Season Tree Damage in Washington County Since Hurricane Edna (1954) Widespread Power Outages –EMERA (19190), CMP (3000), Eastern Maine Electric (3200)

Impacts – Heavy Rain Up to 7 Inches of Rain Fell In Washington County in 24 Hours Exacerbated Response To Wind Damage Interesting Footnote –Temperatures Aloft Were Almost Cold Enough To Have Snow Fall Above 3000 Feet Across Eastern Maine –If This Had Been A September Or October Event, Heavy Wet Snow Could Have Fallen

Best Practices Issued Five Event Briefings July 3-5 Collaborated Closely With NHC And State/Local EMA Directors Stayed The Course After Issuing Non-Tropical Headlines To Avoid Confusion Provided Hourly Wind and Wave Information On July 5 th During Greatest Impacts Conducted Informal Post Event “Hot Wash” With EMA Directors and Forecast Staff Via The Following Week Visited MEMA HQ The Following Week and Spoke With Deputy Director

Lessons Learned Did Not Know Canadian Hurricane Center Could Issue Headlines Apart From NHC Could Have Pushed Tropical Headlines With NHC If We Knew It Would Raise Situational Awareness Tough To Time Forecast Of Expanded High Wind Field When Cyclone Transition To Post Tropical Additional Conference Calls Could Have Clarified The High Wind and Heavy Rain Impacts

Open Discussion At State EMA Conference If A Tropical Cyclone Is Forecast To Transition To Post Tropical Near The Maine Coast, What Is Your Preference For Headlines? Feedback –Prefer Tropical Headlines Due to Greater Public Awareness and Response –Tropical Headlines Prompts Greater Readiness For Utility Companies –The Term “Post Tropical” Is Confusing – Implies That Event Is Over Or Less Serious

NHC Storm Surge Graphic Slide

Questions? Courtesy The Weather Channel