FIGURE 19-1 Greenhouse and natural changes Chap. 19: Climate Change in the next 100 to 1000 yrs Natural Variations in Climate

FIGURE 19-2 Future population Future Human Impacts on Climate Projected carbon emissions: % increase = % increase in population x % change in emissions per person x changes in efficiency of carbon use

FIGURE 19-3 Projected carbon emissions Emission per person Efficiency of use: oil, gas, coal (anthracite coal, bituminous coal) new technology and affordability

FIGURE 19-4 The fate of the human CO 2 pulse Projected CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere How the climate system will re- distribute the pulse of excess CO 2 among its carbon reservoirs? ½ of the total carbon emission enter the ocean and the biosphere?

FIGURE 19-5 Projected CO 2 concentrations Decline of CO 2 concentration lags peak of emisison by a century CO 2 concentration above the pre-industrial level 1000yrs later

BOX 19-1 Methane clathrate feedback (a frozen form, CH 4 mixture with slushy ice) Other human effects on the atmosphere

FIGURE 19-6 Projected temperature increases Future Climate Change Caused by increased CO 2 1. Excess CO 2 emission; 2. Excess CO 2 concentration 3. Earth sensitivity to higher CO 2 concentration

FIGURE 19-7 CO 2 : past and future FIGURE 19-8 Temp: past and future Partial analogs from Earth’s history

FIGURE 19-9 A 2xCO 2 world The 2xCO 2 world likely to exist by the year 2100 will in many ways be similar to the world that existed 5 to 10 million yrs ago

FIGURE Melting permafrost

FIGURE The Greenland ice sheet

FIGURE The Antarctic ice sheet

FIGURE Vulnerable ice shelves?

FIGURE A 4xCO 2 world The 4xCO 2 world that may come into existence between 2200 and 2300 would be slowly moving toward conditions that existed 50 or more million yrs ago, when little or no glacial or sea ice was present on Earth, and forests grew in the higher latitude of the Artic.

Greenhouse surprises? Melting of Greenland ice Stop formation of deep water Colder Europe (5 o C or more) Slow or stop the rate of uptake of CO 2 in N. Atlantic Extra CO 2 remain in the atmosphere Others ?

FIGURE Future changes in ice volume Monitoring Greenhouse Warming: the next few decades

FIGURE Future changes in subsurface ocean temperature Measuring increases in the height of the ocean caused by thermal expansion and increases in the velocity of sound moving through subsurface ocean layers (A SOund Fixing And Ranging Channel located at a depth near 1 km is particularly favorable)

FIGURE Larger temperature increases at high latitudes The impacts of future increases of Greenhouse gases on humans

FIGURE Changes in length of seasons

Value Judgments Changes in regional temp. Changes in water for civil usage, agriculture Rise of sea level Epilogue