1 MANE-VU Modeling Plans Inter-RPO Modeling Meeting May 25, 2004 Shan He, Emily Savelli, Jung-Hun Woo, John Graham and Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM.

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Presentation transcript:

1 MANE-VU Modeling Plans Inter-RPO Modeling Meeting May 25, 2004 Shan He, Emily Savelli, Jung-Hun Woo, John Graham and Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

OBJECTIVES & EPISODES Objectives - “Tools and Techniques” for contribution assessment and SIP development - Performance evaluation - Synthesis with data analysis “weight of evidence” approach Models - CMAQ: SAPRC99 and aero3 chemistry, DDM analysis - REMSAD: micro-CB4 and aerosol chemistry, tagging - CALPUFF Platform - RedHat Linux PCs with Portland Group Fortran Episodes - Year 2002 Dirty PM episodes: 1/25-1/31 7/5-7/11 (PM & Ozone) 8/8-8/15 (PM & Ozone) 11/17-11/22 Clean episodes: 5/18-5/22 10/11-10/17 DOE NEAQS flight: 7/12-8/9 IMPROVE, STN, FRM,TEOM, PM supersites, AIRMAP, etc..

MODEL DOMAIN (REMSAD & CMAQ) 36km and 12km MM5 under development at University of Maryland 36km Met domain <165 E-W, 129 N-S 12km Met domain 172 E-W, 175 N-S Plus…?? 12km AQ domain 169 E-W, 172 N-S Plus…?? (264,-888km) (2292, 1176km)

Comparison to Midwest RPO 12km Nest LADCO’s CAMx domain (36km, 12km, and 4km) compared to MANE-VU 12km CMAQ domain (Blue Square; about 120X120 grid cells)

CALMET MET DOMAIN (Blue) / CALPUFF COMPUTATIONAL DOMAIN (Green) (0,0) point for Lambert Conformal Projection 40 Deg N : -97 Deg W LCP x:y (2520:-720) LCP x:y (2520:1404) LCP x:y (-108:1404) LCP x:y (- 108:-720) Domain remains same as when established in Dec 2003

EMISSIONS (REMSAD & CMAQ) MANE-VU EI Development Project : - Main manager/contractor : MARAMA/PECHAN - For Criteria Pollutants :PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NH3, VOCs, PM10, CO, EC, and OC - Spatial/Temporal Domain : MANE-VU region & Canada, for Year Source Types/Categories : Point, Area(also including open burning, residential wood combustion, fire, and dust), On-Road (including VMT), Non-Road - Development Scheme : Integration with QA/QC, base-on EPA NEI 1999V3, 2002V1, CERR submittals, State-base data, and EI models. - Schedule : EI (Dec, 2004), Model-Ready (Feb, 2005)

EGUs with CEMS2002 Data in Domain EGUs from 1999NEI with PM2.5 emissions Other point and area sources from 1999NEI SO2,NOx,PM2.5 converted to 20km area sources Added Canadian point sources from 2002 NPRI (National Pollutant Release Inventory) EMISSIONS FOR CALPUFF

Meteorology University of Maryland/New York State DEC : - 12 km MM5 using modified Blackedar boundary layer scheme - Schedule : 5-month Ozone season (Fall 2004) Model-Ready (Feb, 2005) (CALPUFF) NWS Rawinsonde Observations, ASOS surface obs + obs from > 1000 precipitation station all processed through CALMET (REMSAD & CMAQ)

Timeframe for Results Contribution assessment with preliminary REMSAD, CALPUFF, CMAQ and Source Apportionment Techniques (Sept 2004) 2002 Meteorology and Inventory (Feb 2005) Final performance evaluation (Summer 2005) Refined Modeling and Analysis (Dec 2005) Final strategy modeling and remaining regulatory analyses – ( varies by state)