1. Regional Modeling Update
Gary Kleiman • NESCAUM
MANE-VU Modeling Workgroup
WRAP Technical Meeting
January 29, 2004
MANE-VU Modeling Update

2. What’s up with M-V modeling?
Working on tools and techniques
Plan to publish ‘2002 Year in Review’ report in late spring
Plan to publish ‘M-V Contribution Assessment’ report in late summer
MANE-VU Modeling Update

3. ‘2002 Year in Review’ Report
Collection of monitored data from modeling base year; will serve as the basis for performance evaluations
Special focus on specific events that we may want to model in detail
Special focus on spatial hotspots where we might want to have nesting, etc.
MANE-VU Modeling Update

4. ‘M-V Contribution Assessment’ Report
Conceptual model of haze in the East
Review of Monitoring (2002 report)
Modeling
Synthesis and interpretation
Weight of Evidence Approach is Key to Modeling
MANE-VU Modeling Update

5. Multiple resources/platforms
REMSAD v.7.10 (annual runs)
CMAQ with DDM (episodes)
CALPUFF
CALGRID
Trajectory Cluster Analysis
UNMIX/PMF (Source Apportionment)
MANE-VU Modeling Update

6. MANE-VU Modeling Update
REMSAD
Annual Runs with EPA 2001 Proxy Inventory and 2010, 2020 projection
Tagged elevated point sources
1996 emissions
Waiting for 2002 NEI v.1
Will probably run with CENRAP MM5 data (initially)
MANE-VU Modeling Update

7. MANE-VU Modeling Update
CMAQ
Collaborating with Georgia Tech on STAR Grant related to Climate Change
Direct Decoupled Method will allow investigation of sensitivities
Will start with 2002 NEI v.1
M-V is developing Eastern Domain met for August 2002
MANE-VU Modeling Update

8. MANE-VU Modeling Update
CALPUFF
Running major point sources in Eastern U.S.
1999 NEI v.3 (2002 NEI v.1 when avail.)
2002 CEM data
2002 CENRAP MM5
2002 Rawindsonde Observations
2 met x 2 emissions comparison
MANE-VU Modeling Update

9. MANE-VU Modeling Update
CALGRID
EPA 2001 Proxy Inventory
1996 Meteorology
Sensitivity testing to various emission reductions
MANE-VU Modeling Update

10. MANE-VU Modeling Update
PATH Analysis
Patterns in Atmospheric Transport History (Moody, et al, UVA)
HYSPLIT model for
15 Receptor sites in Eastern U.S.
Clusters based on 3-D similarity
Compare clusters with observations
MANE-VU Modeling Update

11. MANE-VU Modeling Update
Source Apportionment
MANE-VU/Midwest RPO SA project
Phase IIa and IIb
CATT tool
Whatever Rich Poirot is working on
MANE-VU Modeling Update

12. MANE-VU Modeling Update
Weight of Evidence
From a PM/Haze perspective, Northeast will be seeking to develop “weight of evidence” demonstrations that include consistent results from several platforms
MANE-VU Modeling Update

13. MANE-VU Modeling Update
Timetable for Results
Early focus: tools and techniques (not results)
Late summer: Review and Comment
Fall ’04 into ’05: refine inputs and analyses (focus on results and performance evaluation)
Right now we are exploring the tools and techniques that will eventually be applied for SIP quality analyses. The hope is that through the review and comment period on our forthcoming products we can define “how”. “When” will be determined by availability of key inputs such as inventories, met, spatial surrogates, international emissions, etc.. The focus for the following year will be to refine these inputs as much as possible.
MANE-VU Modeling Update