A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang

Introduction Global Warming Debate “Greenhouse” gases Why should we worry?

Purpose/Goals Create a convincing model of global warming scenario “Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be understood easily and applied”

Scope of the Project Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of time. The "effects" currently include, but is not limited to, global temperatures, frequency of hurricanes, methane release, and other consequences that will arise from increasing global temperature.

Background Daisyworld Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations System Dynamics Modeling and Agent- based Modeling Netlogo’s System Dynamics Modeler

System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle) OceanAtmosphereFossil Fuel SoilLand Biota Out/In (Negligible)

Explanation of Variables Used Fossil Fuel: Amount of Carbon present in Fossil Fuel Atmosphere: Amount of Carbon inside Atmosphere, directly affects Global Temperature Land Biota: Amount of Carbon present in Land organisms, like plants. Help control the amount of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration

Explanation of Variables Used Soil: Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by respiration (and slowly recovers the amount of Fossil Fuel). Ocean: Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane dissolved in water. Potentially very important, helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.

System Dynamics Model (Secondary) Global Temperature IceHurricanes Albedo Ocean Temperature Methane

Explanation of Variables Used Global Temperature Amount of Ice: Directly affects albedo of earth Albedo: Reflectance of earth, ranging from 0-1 Ocean Temperature Methane Hurricanes

Other Factors Great ocean conveyer belt shut-down Changes in sunlight intensity Polar ice caps melt resulting in sudden salinity changes ?

Netlogo Model Secondary Model Variables Used

Results

Results Temperature increase of about 1-5 degrees globally? Even if carbon output was to completely shut down now, temperature will keep on increasing for a while Results hint at a possibility of accelerating temperature increase, aided by melting of ice caps and release of methane gas