50,000 B.C.1Hunter-gatherer Societies 8,000 B.C.5Agricultural Revolution 1,000 B.C.50 1 A.D A.D A.D.400Black Plague 1300 A.D A.D.443Black Plague 1400 A.D A.D.545Black Plague 1650 A.D A.D.600Industrial Revolution in Europe 1800 A.D.813Industrial Revolution in US, Irish Potato 1900 A.D.1, A.D.2,400Contraceptive Pill, Great Famine of C 2000 A.D.6,000

1 billion billion1927 (123 years later) 3 billion1960 (33 years later) 4 billion1974 (14 years later) 5 billion1987 (13 years later) 6 billion1999 (12 years later) 7 billion 2011 (12 years later)

 The ability to expand into diverse new habitats and different climate zones.  The emergence of early and modern agriculture  Development of sanitation systems, antibiotics, and vaccines

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 What do you think the top 10 most populated countries are?

RANKCOUNTRY OR AREAPOPULATION  1China1,351,000,000  2India1,237,000,000  3United States 316,000,000  4Indonesia 245,613,043  5Brazil 203,429,773  6Pakistan 187,342,721  7Bangladesh 158,570,535  8Nigeria 155,215,573  9Russia 138,739,892  10Japan 126,475,664

 Rapid Growth: Guatemala, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia  Slow Growth: U.S., Australia, China  Stable: Italy, Greece  Declining: Germany, Bulgaria, Russia, Japan ** In 2050, expected to have somewhere between billion people

 Developing countries are growing much faster than developed countries  Some countries more dense than others

Carrying Capacity hotly debated, some say we’ve reached it, and we are in a reproductive time lag. Some say we still have some room to grow. Some say it is limitless. CARRYING CAPACITY (c.c.)  Maximum c.c. of humans on Earth 9-10 billion  Doubling time years Using a moderate “business as usual” model with slow, steady growth of economies and populations, U.N. estimates demand will be 2X Earth’s capacity by: 2050

 The number of births or deaths per 1,000 people per year.

 Percent annual population growth (r) = (birth rate – death rate) / 10  Doubling Time (in years) = 70 / (r) **** DO NOT CHANGE r into a decimal!!!!!!!

 The average number of children that couples in a population must bear to replace themselves.  2.1 in developed countries  2.5 in developing countries kids-a-stable-population

 Does reaching replacement-level fertility bring an immediate halt to population growth?  If we reached replacement-level fertility rates, population growth would not stop for roughly another 50 years. Can anyone explain this to me?

 The average number of children born to women in a population during their reproductive years.  Good News: TFR has been declining  2008: 2.5 (2.8 in developing, 1.6 developed)

 Baby boom: (TFR 3.7)  In 2008, TFR was 2.1 (1.9 now)  Most TFRs in developed countries are much lower than this (Ex. China is 1.6)  Why is this bad news for the environment? Very high per capita resource use in U.S., so not so good when you increase population.

1. Importance of children in labor force 2. Cost of raising and educating children 3. Availability of pension 4. Urbanization 5. Infant Mortality Rate 6. Educational and Employment Opportunities for Women 7. Average Age at Marriage 8. Availability of Abortions and Birth Control 9. Morals

 Higher in developing countries

 Cost higher in developed countries so they have lower birth rates  $290,000 in U.S.

 Good pension systems reduce the need to have children

 Urban areas have better access to family planning services and tend to have fewer children.  Rural areas require more children to work in the fields

 Better educated women get married later and have fewer children

 Infant Mortality Rate: the number of children per 1,000 live births who die before one year of age.  Places with lower IMR, fewer children

 Women who have their first child after age 25, tend to have fewer children

 Legal abortions and more access to birth control decrease the number of children one has

 Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

 Two useful indicators: 1. Life expectancy (LE) 2. Infant mortality rate Life Expectancy: the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live

 78 years (2008)  Lack of health care insurance  Obesity

 6.6 (2008)  Inadequate health care for poor women  Drug addiction  High birth rate among teenagers

 Blue = prereproductive  Green= reproductive  Pink= postreproductive

 Nearly 28% of the people on the planet were under 15 years old in  Soon they will be moving into their reproductive years  You know what that means…

 Population growth much higher in developing nations  Most of the world’s population growth in the future will come from developing nations.

Occurs when countries become industrialized. 1) Death rates decline 2) Birth rates decline Takes place in 4 stages

Population grows very slowly because of a high birth rate and a high death rate. Ex) Sub-Saharan Africa (not including SA)

Population grows rapidly because birth rates are high and death rates drop because of improved food production and health Ex) Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan

Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved food production, health, and education. Ex) Mexico,Jamaica, Costa Rica

Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall below death rates. Ex) US, South Korea, China, Canada, Europe

1) Family Planning 2) Reduce Poverty 3) Empower Women

 How many children to have and when to have them.  Information of birth spacing, birth control, and health care.  Very effective. Why is it so effective? Knowledge and contraceptives!

 Responsible for at least 55% of the drop in total fertility rates in developing countries Ex) Thailand used family planning to cut its annual population growth rate from 3.2% to 0.5%.

1. Unplanned births still very high 2. Cannot get access to family planning even if they want it

 United Nations held conference on population in Egypt.  Stabilize the world’s population at 7.8 billion by 2050 instead of the projected 9.2 billion.

Women who…  Are Educated  Hold a job  Live where women’s rights are not suppressed …Have fewer children

 Women account for 2/3 of all hours worked, but receive only 10% of the world’s income and own less than 2% of the world’s land.  900 million girls do not attend elementary school  Women who cannot read: 5-7 children  Women who can read: 2 or fewer children

 China  India

 Baby boomers make up half of all adult Americans  They have control! The dominate demands for goods and services, important roles in deciding who gets elected, and what laws are passed.  But soon they will be getting old……. and they may drain our social security benefits.

 If decline happens too quickly, you will not have a workforce to support your elders Ex) Japan: has the world’s highest proportion of elderly people and the lowest proportion of young people.