Studies of the Process Chain and the Predictability of Precipitation With the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany Claudia Wunram and Michael Lautenschlager World Data Center for Climate Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Reinhold Steinacker and Manfred Dorninger Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics University of Vienna Mathias Rotach Swiss Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology Meteo Swiss Christoph Kottmeier Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research University of Karlsruhe

Moisture Net (Hauck, IMK) SurfAce fLuxes and Valley convEction (U Bayreuth, U Mainz, Kalthoff, IMK) COPS-CI Remote Sensing (Behrendt, IPM) Life Cycle of Deep Convection during COPS (Hagen, DLR) Lower and Upper Tropospheric Forcing of Convection (Barthlott, IMK) D-PHASE/COPS Process Chain (IPM; Lautenschlager, WDCC; Steinacker, UniVie; Rotach, MeteoSwiss) Parameterization of Cumulus Convection (Küll, U Bonn) CI ACM PPL Coordination & DAP COPS-GRID (Bauer, IPM; Dick, GFZ; Wergen, DWD) COPS-LIDAR-IFT (Ansmann, IfT) COPS-UK COPS-Italy COPS-France COPS-Austria D-PHASE ETReC07 TRACKS ARM WWRP MWF

WWRP FDP D-PHASE April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany 6 ensemble prediction systems 7 convection permitting models 9 models with convection parameterization

Central Hypothesis The next generation of convection permitting models provides a breakthrough in modeling of the initiation and organization of convective systems. This results in an improvement of the skill of probabilistic precipitation forecasting. April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

Research Strategy Combination of process studies and skill analyses in the COPS domain. Links to PQP projects: -Process studies -Parameterizations -Ensemble design -Verification COPS/D-PHASE will become international convection and data assimilation testbed of April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

COPS Highlight 1: Airmass convection, July 15, 2007, IOP8b MSG Rapid Scan Service (RSS) April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany The role of humidity

Wind and moisture fields DWD Radar radial velocity GPS IWV (Galina Dick, GFZ Potsdam) April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

Airmass convection, July 15, 2007, IOP8b: Model results MESO-NH and AROME were the only models, which predicted CI. Proposed as international reference case (GCSS)! Windfield with convergence (Evelyne Richard, Lab. d‘Aerology, Toulouse). CI in nature and model very similar. April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

5-min MSG RSS initiated by COPS team COPS Highlight 2: Pre-frontal convergence line, July 20, 2007 Cyclogenesis over France, development of a mesoscale convective system. Flooding events in UK and eastern Germany. April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

DWD radar network, July 20, 2007 Extreme precipitation was caused by a squall line, which developed ahead of the mesoscale convective system. April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

Highlight 3: Reduction of windward/lee effect D-PHASE model evaluation using COSMO-EU with convection parameterization and convection permitting COSMO-DE. April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

State-of-the-art of convection permitting modeling in COPS domain Meteo Swiss First evaluation of D-PHASE models in COPS domain. H H H H H L L Meteo France DWD IPM H mm April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

A variable d is predictable in dependence of forecast range  if (sign. nonzero). Bayesian factor B: l: likelihood, d: data vector, M i : ith model, M r : reference model. Predictability in collaboration with NUMEX Design of an optimized multi-model, convection permitting ensemble prediction system. Proposal of future optimizations. April 10-11, 2008DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

COPSGOPD-PHASEWORLD Scientific community DFG rules for good scientific practice Maintenance of long term archive COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Policy WDCC Meta data description Alerts Pictures Additional info files PQP2 Meta data description Hydro model data Atmosperic model data Observation data Data input Interface design Common data formats Data base design Upload survey User support User administration Data extraction User requirements Interface design User support User administration Meta data description Assimilation products Validation products New data sets Detailed observation data Gridded data products Higher value products Data source synergy IOP access Data Provider COPSGOPD-PHASE PQP2/ 3 PQP3

Highlight 3 January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany MESO-NH, MM5 simulation (with cloud liquid water) and VERA analysis valid for 14 UTC. Pronounced moisture flux con- vergence is observed over the Black Forest.

Work Packages and Time Table January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany WP IPM1COPS Coordination and management by COPS Project Office IPM Short description: At IPM, the collection and quality control of the data has been organized and shall be continued. The COPS coordinator organizes the COPS Project Office. WP WDCC Joint COPS-GOP-D-PHASE Data ArchiveWDCC Short description: At WDCC the long-term data archiving, well founded user support and reliable maintenance of the common COPS/GOP, D- PHASE data archive shall be continued. Establishing a well-informed contact person at the data archive as direct support is a crucial advantage when handling this data collection in a joint project context. A prerequisite of the success of COPS was the funding of dedicated staff for COPS coordination and the COPS data archive, and the development of the COPS web site. WP IMK1Maintenance and extension of COPS WebsiteIMK Short description: The COPS website has been proven as a unique source of information about COPS IOPs. It provides easy access to key information such as forecasts and quicklooks of first results.

Work Packages and Time Table January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany WP IPM 2: D-PHASE Process Chain WP IPM2_1 Long-term evaluation of the model performance during COPS IPM Short description: In this coordinated action, the models of the D- PHASE ensemble are investigated concerning their long-term behavior during the COPS period. Different products from the project partners are collected and analyzed. WP IPM2_2 Model performance during IOPsIPM Short description: Detailed investigation of the model performance for selected IOPs by comparing with the COPS data set WP IPM2_3 Detailed process studies with model subsetIPM Short description: In this WP the set of models selected in WP IPM2_2, forced with initial conditions as close to reality as possible, are used to evaluate the impact of the different assimilation and observing systems in the respective models. The emphasis is to reveal errors in the ABL, convection, and cloud physics parameterizations.

Work Packages and Time Table January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany WP UV1D-PHASE quality controlled and gridded data setUniVie Short description: The collected non-GTS data (only surface data are regarded) over the D-PHASE domain have to be quality controlled. This is an important preceding step for all further use of the data for any verification study. In a second step the data are gridded by using the VERA approach. WP UniVie 2 (UV2): Verification of D-PHASE model ensemble WP UV2_1 Definition of parameters and verification measures UniVie Short description: In cooperation with the project partners parameters to be verified and the verification measures are selected. WP UV2_2 Set up of verification tools and test runsUniVie Short description: The verification will be conducted on a grid point basis. VERA analyzed grid-point fields will be compared to the selected NWP model fields. Verification measures (defined in WP UV2_1) are calculated and displayed WP UV2_3 Determination of verification measures for NWP model chain UniVie Short description: The verification tool developed in WP UV2_2 is applied to the selected NWP-models of comparable coarse- (10 to 20 km) and high-resolution models (< 10 km).

Work Packages and Time Table January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany WP MS1D-PHASE coordination and model evaluationMeteoSwiss Short description: In this WP the coordination of this project with D-PHASE Project Office and model comparison studies are refined. WP MS2D-PHASE model verification refinedMeteoSwiss Short description: In this WP, new tools for model verification will be developed and tested. Winter 06/ days New warning index: Probability to exceed a Return Period, PRP Approach: - Use the model climatology to find a return level for a certain return period (for each grid point) - Find number of forecasts exceeding the return level - Give a probability to exceed the return level/period (PRP) (- Use Extreme Value Aanalysis for very rare events (e.g. fit of a GPD)) Syntax: PRP x = Probab. to exceed an event occurring with a return period according to the x-quantile Example: PRP 0.8 = event occurs every 5th day

Work Packages and Time Table January 10-11, 2007DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany WP IPM 3: Predictability WP IPM3_1 Predictability studies using the selected ensemble of models. Collaboration with NUMEX IPM Short description: The subset of models selected in WP IPM2 shall be used for predictability studies A variable d is predictable in dependence of forecast range  if (sign. nonzero). Bayesian factor B: l: likelihood, d: data vector, M i : ith model, M r : reference model.

Work Packages and Time Table January 10-11, 2007DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany Time schedule for performing the work packages by IPM, IMK, UniVie, MeteoSwiss (MS), and WDCC. All these work packages cover the two years, for which funding is requested.