11 September 2015 On the role of measurements and modelling in Dutch air quality policies Guus Velders The Netherlands (RIVM)

Guus Velders 2 EU air quality regulation EU directive on air quality of 2008 ●Limit values for concentrations in ambient air –NO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5, SO 2, Benzene, Lead, Benzo-a-pyrene –Guidelines how to perform measurements specified quality, number of locations, etc. –Combination of measurements and models allowed –Guidelines on the quality of models ●Levels for informing the public (forecasts) –Ozone, SO 2, PM –Hourly averages ●Limit values to be met everywhere ●Implemented in national regulation of each country individually

Guus Velders 3 Dutch implementation ●Air quality limit values linked to new infrastructural projects –Roads, factories, enlargement of pig stables, etc. –For new projects: To be guaranteed beforehand that limit values will not be exceeded (ever) ●Limit values to be met everywhere –Where people can spend an significant amount of time –Except where people are not allowed or can not get (industrial areas, center of motorways, etc.) ●Combination of measurements and models –Requirement for local models –Model intercomparisons –Models need to be approved for official use ●Focus on limit values, …… but there are also health effects below limit values

Guus Velders 4 More and more studies on health effects AQ

Guus Velders 5 Limit values exceedances in the Netherlands ●NO 2 annual average concentration –Limit value: 40 µg/m 3 from 2015-on –Exceedances at locations close to busy motorways and roads in cities –Number of locations reduced from ~1000 km to less than 10 km ●PM 10 daily average concentration –Limit value: 50 µg/m 3 may not be exceeded more than 35 times (from 2011-on) –Exceedances close to roads in cities, industrial locations, agriculture –Currently only close to stables (pigs, poultry) ●PM 2.5 annual average –Limit value: 25 µg/m 3 from 2015-on –No exceedances –Indicative limit value: 20 µg/m 3 from 2020-on –Reduction in average concentration in cities of 15% in 2020 relative to 2010 –Likely to be met

Guus Velders 6 EU, national, and local policies Policies to reduce concentrations ●EU –Emissions ceilings directive: NO x, PM 2.5, SO 2, NH 3, VOC –Regulations for large combustion plants –Limits for the exhaust emissions of passenger cars and trucks: NO x, PM, CO 2 ●Netherlands: national –Additional PM 10 emission ceilings in industry –Regulations for ammonia emissions in agriculture –NO x emissions trading system ●Netherlands: cities –Regulating traffic flows –Bans on ‘dirty’ cars in cities –Promotion of public transport, biking –etc. ●National air quality collaboration programme (NSL)

Guus Velders 7 Air quality assessment in Netherlands Combination of measurements and modelling: past year + projections Focus on limit values and annual average concentrations: NO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5  Concentrations compared with limit values at 0.1 µg/m 3 Uncertainties hardly play a role Public information: Forecast of hourly values Current issues –Which species are most responsible for health effects? –Carbon (EC, OC), metals, NO 2, secondary aerosols (ammonium, nitrate, sulfate), all of PM? –Health effects below limit values

Guus Velders 8 Maps based on models and measurements Emissions 1x1 km 2 : traffic, stables, coal/grain handling OPS calculation 1x1 km 2 Conversion NO x  NO 2 Calibration Meteo Scenarios + Options Emissions 5x5 km 2 : other sources GCN map 1x1 km 2 Observation

Guus Velders 9 Measurements used for the maps In situ measurements ●Networks from several organizations –Hourly/daily observations of many components –27 regional background stations –26 city background stations –28 stations in street canyons –11 stations in industrial areas ●Passive sampler measurements –NO 2 (50-100) in street canyons –NH 3 (>200) in nature areas ●Calibration/validation of the model ●Calibration of the final maps

Guus Velders 10 Concentration maps ●Local models are used to calculate concentrations at street level City of Utrecht

Guus Velders 11 Many sub maps calculates ●Netherlands –50 different emission categories –Resolution: traffic, stables, coal/grain handling: 1x1 km –Others: 5x5 km 2 ●Foreign: all European countries –10 categories (SNAP): separate spatial distributions –Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg: 5x5 km 2 –Others: ~30x30 km 2 ●Shipping at sea –North sea –Ships in harbor and at sea ●Concentrations: NO x, SO 2, NH 3, PM 10, PM 2.5 (primary + secondary), EC ●Nitrogen deposition ●Acid deposition

Guus Velders 12 Analyzing contributions from different sectors ●Ex-ante or ex-post evaluations of control measures ●Used for cost benefit analyses ●Correlations with health effects

Guus Velders 13 Projections of emissions Emissions decrease mainly due to traffic measures (Euro standards)

Guus Velders 14 Projections of concentrations: NO 2 Decreasing observed concentrations and projections Uncertainties are significant, but ignored in policies

Guus Velders 15 Projections of concentrations: PM 10 and PM 2.5 Slightly decreasing concentrations

Guus Velders 16 Air quality short-term forecasts Atmospheric chemistry transport model ●Assimilation of observations ●Currently ground based ozone observations only

Guus Velders 17 Potential for satellite data for AQ in Netherlands ●NO 2 concentrations Need for: –Surface concentrations –High resolution required (km scale) –High accuracy required (10%) –Good coverage (spatial and temporal) Potential for: –Direct mapping of air quality: No –Identifying/verifying sources: Yes –Comparison with other regions/countries: Yes –Improvement in models: Yes –??? ●Aerosols –Aerosol optical depth  Surface concentrations: EC/BC, OC, inorganics –Identifying/verifying sources ●Ozone, Ammonia –Surface concentrations needed

Guus Velders 18 More information here ●Background report: Velders et al., 2015 ●Websites: ●Publications

Guus Velders 19 Questions? Dank u wel Thank you Gracias Danke Merci Diolch yn fawr Cпасибо شكرا 谢谢 धन्यवाद σας ευχαριστώ תודה terima kasih teşekkür ederim köszönöm நன்றி