War and Demographics By: Scott Dai

Introduction To identify and analyze the impact of demographics on the propensity of war in a multi-cultural comparative study. Why are some cultures more warlike than others? Could the demographics of a population be a major factor in the aggressiveness of that population?

Hypothesis  Propensity for war is directly correlated to increase in population density.  Larger communities tend to be more aggressive.  The more contact a community has with its neighbor the more likely is conflict.

Variables Community size v63 Population density v64 Contact with other societies v787 Hostilities toward other societies v780 Group A-1/3Group A-2/3Group A-3/3 Frequency of external war-attacking v892 Group B-1/3Group B-2/3Group B-3/3 Value of war- violence/war against non- member of the group v907 Group C-1/3Group C-2/3Group C-3/3

Group A-1/3

Group A-2/3

Group A-3/3

Analysis of Group A  Cross-tab data contributes to the theory of increased hostilities with increased community size and density.  Strong indication of hostilities with frequent contact with others.  Degree of hostility is equally spread in communities with low population size and density.  Dataset favors positive war-demographic connection.  Group-A does not contradict the hypothesis.

Group B-1/3

Group B-2/3

Group B-3/3

Analysis of Group B  Direct and strong connection between frequency of external war and community size.  Positive connection between population density and war frequency.  More contact with other societies is directly connected with higher frequency of war.  Dataset favors negative war-demographics connection.  Group-B does not contradict the hypothesis.

Group C-1/3

Group C-2/3

Group C-3/3

Analysis of Group C  Overwhelmingly positive connection between high value of war and frequent contact.  Larger community size parallels societies that highly value war.  Increased population density correlates weakly, but in a positive manner, with higher value of war.  Dataset favors positive war-demographics connection.  Group-C does not contradict the hypothesis.

Conclusion  Propensity for war does not necessary have a connection with population density. The data does not conclusively support or exclude the theory.  Larger communities does become more war-like, although not necessarily in every case.  High rate of contact parallels higher aggressiveness.  Demographics is highly likely a significant contributor in the chance of war.