Grand Overview 1. Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually 2. That time is near for fossil fuels as our energy foundation 3. New solutions do exist

Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Adam Smith – right up there with Aristotle!

1942 Lecture I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.

Consumption with a Conscience

The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!

Global Consequences of Global Consumption

And Now we are at an Interesting Point ($100 for crude oil)

The Business As Usual Future

Continued Consumption

Continued Climate Change

What Are the BAU Options? LNG development “Clean Coal” Fast Breeder Reactors Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands) Fastest gateway to energy economy Leads to Growth of GDP Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Reinforces BAU – mine the planet

Breaking out of BAU  Consume less  Drive less  Plan ahead  Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure  Have long term governmental goals  Requires some component of morality based decision making  Requires leadership  Requires world cooperation

But Many Options Now Exist Solar PV Solar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-Generation Biomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf Current OTEC; Gulf Current

Barriers to Renewables High capital cost; long payback times High capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking NIMBY reactions to anything and everything NIMBY reactions to anything and everything Technology uncertainty Technology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitations Electrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and Cons Pros Resource is available CSP technology rapidly improving Many small scale applications Thermal Electric is dispatchable Can co-locate with Fossil Plan Cons Large $/Watt installation costs Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7

Wind Pros and Cons Pros Low levelized costs Small footprint on the Land Applicable on both large and small scale Some wind resources is usually always present Cons Visual Pollution Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large

Transportation Changes Pros Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation Single biggest lever arm for global climate change Single biggest influence on development Cons Marx says we can’t Our whole economic structure is based on private vehicles Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure

Bio Mass Pros Simple technology Good Co-generation device Makes reasonable use of agricultural waste Creates Jobs Cons Transport of Wet Crops is energy intensive Creates pollutants Not clear if there is a net energy gain Not practical on large scale

OTEC; Gulf Current Pros Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy Cons Gigantic up front costs Engineering challenge Requires world cooperation

Be Optimistic Change can occur – this class is part of this process Change can occur – this class is part of this process Individual attitudes matter and thus individuals can influence others Individual attitudes matter and thus individuals can influence others Many clever and dedicated people are now addressing this problem Many clever and dedicated people are now addressing this problem Technology is rapidly improving Technology is rapidly improving Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember Fred! Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember Fred!