Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services Kevin Johnston NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision/BenefitsVision/Benefits Goals/TargetsGoals/Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

Aviation Services Team Composition Kevin Johnston (NWS/OST)Kevin Johnston (NWS/OST) Mark Andrews (NWS/OS)Mark Andrews (NWS/OS) Lynn Sherretz (OAR/FSL)Lynn Sherretz (OAR/FSL) Gary Ellrod (NESDIS)Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) Aviation Weather CenterAviation Weather Center Regional Aviation MeteorologistsRegional Aviation Meteorologists

Aviation Services Vision / Benefits Vision Operational Utility of All Aviation Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy Vision Operational Utility of All Aviation Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy Reduce National Airspace System Weather Delays by 10% Expected Savings of $600M/Year (Air Transport Assoc. Study) Reduce Alternate Fuel Cost up to 50% ($200M Savings) Reduce General Aviation Weather-Related Fatalities by 25%

Aviation Services Goals/Targets to FY 12 Proposed GPRA Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target Ceiling/Visibility POD 45%55%70% Ceiling/Visibility FAR 71%64%50% Proposed Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target Turbulence POD Yes 53%60%70% Turbulence POD No 75%80%85% Icing POD Yes 67%72%80% Icing POD No 73%78%85% Thunderstorm POD 25%30%50% Thunderstorm FAR 71%60%40% On Track Low Risk High Risk

Aviation Services Key Information Gaps More Accurate Icing ForecastsMore Accurate Icing Forecasts More Accurate Clear-Air Turbulence ForecastsMore Accurate Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasts More Accurate Identification of Low Clouds/VisibilityMore Accurate Identification of Low Clouds/Visibility More Precise Timing/ Location of ConvectionMore Precise Timing/ Location of Convection Knowledge of Model Guidance UncertaintyKnowledge of Model Guidance Uncertainty

Aviation Services Key S&T Solutions GapSolutionImpact More Precise Timing and Location of Convection Identification of Low Clouds/ Visibility Identification of Drizzle Size and Super-Cooled Droplets in Clouds 8km WRF8km WRF MDCRS Water Vapor SensorMDCRS Water Vapor Sensor NCWFNCWF Hourly Model OutputHourly Model Output METSAT ImageryMETSAT Imagery Hourly MOSHourly MOS UPS TechniqueUPS Technique Conditional ClimoConditional Climo FAA AWRP Efforts at SFO, NYCFAA AWRP Efforts at SFO, NYC TrainingTraining Dual PolarizationDual Polarization Millimeter RadarMillimeter Radar FAA AWRP FIPFAA AWRP FIP Vertical Acceleration of Air Motion Resolved; Boundary Level Moisture Expanded; Growth and Decay; 50% Increase in POD Determine 200/1000’ Ceilings;1/2-3 Mile Visibility W/I One Hour of Occurrence; 30% Increase in POD Decrease Total Volume of Airspace Affected by Icing Forecast By 13%; 10% Increase in POD

Aviation Services Key S&T Solutions (Continued) GapSolutionImpact More Accurate Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasts (Gravity Waves From Convection, Jet Streaks, Cross-Mountain Flow) Probabilistic; Range of Uncertainties Verification MDCRS EDRMDCRS EDR RUC-WRFRUC-WRF FAA AWRP ITFAFAA AWRP ITFA Advanced EnsemblesAdvanced Ensembles Advance Convection ToolAdvance Convection Tool RTVSRTVS Aviation Verification SystemAviation Verification System 5Km Horizontal Location/15 Minute Timing Improvement; 30% Increase in POD Increase Operational Utility of Forecasts AWC Integrating WFO Forecasts/Producing Tstm Grids Quality Assessment of Forecasts

Aviation Weather Key S&T Solutions Dual Pol * MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR 8km WRF Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Forecast Techniques Training Advanced Ensembles *UPS Fog Conditional Climo *UPS Fog Conditional Climo *First Guess TAF Hourly MOS *First Guess TAF Hourly MOS MM Radar Low Cloud Imagery *NYC Low Cloud *SFO Low Cloud *PIT Low Cloud FAA IFTA FAA FIP *NCWF *Low Cloud/Vsby *Probability Verification RTVS/TAF CWSU Products *ACT in GFE Prob TSTMS/WFO Grids/TSTM Height

Aviation Services Outstanding R&D Needs Develop Numerical and Subjective Techniques to Improve Hour Convection ForecastsDevelop Numerical and Subjective Techniques to Improve Hour Convection Forecasts Develop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range VisibilityDevelop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range Visibility Develop Techniques for Forecasting the Time of Formation and Burn-off of IFR Conditions to Within 1HourDevelop Techniques for Forecasting the Time of Formation and Burn-off of IFR Conditions to Within 1Hour Improve Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing PotentialImprove Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing Potential Improve Clear Air Turbulence ForecastsImprove Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts Develop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of ForecastsDevelop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of Forecasts Develop Tools to Prepare Grids or Objects for IFPS to Generate Aviation Weather Elements and ProductsDevelop Tools to Prepare Grids or Objects for IFPS to Generate Aviation Weather Elements and Products

Aviation Services Summary Increasing Performance R&D Needs Develop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range VisibilityDevelop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range Visibility Improve Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing PotentialImprove Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing Potential Develop Techniques to Improve Hour Convection ForecastsDevelop Techniques to Improve Hour Convection Forecasts Improve Clear Air Turbulence ForecastsImprove Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts Develop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of ForecastsDevelop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of Forecasts Improve Model Resolution and Accuracy New and Improved Forecast Techniques New Observations Focused Training Probabilistic Techniques Dual Polarization/MM Radar Higher Resolution Obs. Vision Operational Utility of Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy Improving U.S. Aviation Safety and Reducing Air Traffic Delays