Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) Options for Completing the 3SAQS Pilot Study University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) July 28, 2014

2 Pilot Study Tasks and Status Task (Project Management) – Ongoing Task (Emissions/AQ Support) – Complete Task (2011 WRF Modeling) – Modeling complete – Draft MPE report (July 2014) – Final MPE report (August 2014)

3 Pilot Study Tasks and Status Task (2011 Emission Inventory (EI)) – Complete Task (Base and Future Year O&G EI) – Phase and 2020 EIs Complete – Phase 2 Adding fracing engine inventory (July 2014) Update tank emissions in Piceance Basin to account for liquids (July 2014) Tribal O&G EI updates in Uinta Basin using EPA MNSR (August 2014)

4 Pilot Study Tasks and Status Task (Projection Period Inventories) – 2008  2020 (July 2014) – 2011  2020 (August 2014) Task (Air Quality Modeling) – CAMx Base08b and MPE report (July 2014) – 2011 Modeling Protocol (July 2014) – CAMx Base20_08a (August 2014) – CAMx Base11a and MPE report (August 2014) – CAMx Base20_11a (September 2014)

5 Pilot Study Tasks and Status Task (3SDW Development Support) – Beta source apportionment analysis database and web tool (September 2014) – Final 2008, 2011, 2020_08 and 2020_11 emissions data loaded into the 3SDW and emissions review tool (September 2014) – 2008 CAMx v5.41 benchmarking package (July 2014) – 2011 CAMx v6.10 benchmarking package (August 2014) – 3SDW 2008 NEPA modeling package (July 2014) – 3SDW 2011 NEPA modeling package (August 2014) – 2008 and 2011 research modeling packages (September 2014)

6 Pilot Study Tasks and Status Task (3SDW Development Support- con’t) – 3SAQS CAMx_Base08b MPE results in 3SDW (July 2014) – 3SAQS CAMx_Base08_20a MPE results in 3SDW (August 2014) – 3SAQS CAMx_Base11a MPE results in 3SDW (September 2014) – 3SAQS CAMx_Base08_20a MPE results in 3SDW (September 2014)

7 Pilot Study Optional Tasks Remaining funding to support additional work through the end of 2014 Requesting No-Cost-Extension for 1 additional quarter to complete the pilot study

8 3SAQS 2011 O&G Emissions 2011 Oil and Gas Emissions for Three-State Basins have two sources: – State/EPA provided 2011 O&G Emissions CO APEN; UT Major Source Permit; WY everything; EPA Tribal Major Source Permit (e.g., Uinta and SUIT) – Survey-based 2011 O&G emissions grown from 2008 WestJumpAQMS O&G emissions Perform controls analysis between 2008 and 2011 for survey-based O&G emissions

9 3SAQS Phase I 2020 O&G Projections State/EPA-Provided 2011 O&G emissions – Use historical growth in activity by source type – Grow 2011 O&G to 2020 based on changes in activity – No controls analysis Insufficient information provided in state/EPA-provided O&G data to determine controls Survey-based 2011 O&G emissions – Use historical growth in activity by source type – Grow 2011 O&G to 2020 based on changes in activity – Perform controls analysis based on new regulations on-the-books between 2011 and 2020

10 3SAQS Phase II 2020 O&G Projections Selected following Phase II updates to 2011/2020 oil and gas emissions: – Incorporate EPA Minor Source Permit Data into 2011 and then 2020 O&G emissions – Add fracing engines in 2011 and 2020 O&G emissions based on literature (CO, UT and NM) Original surveys (2006) did not include fracing – Update tank emissions using additional information For example, Piceance basin Still have $15K left in current 3SAQS O&G emissions budget for additional Phase II updates

11 Additional Phase II O&G Updates Intermediate year O&G emissions between 2011 and 2020 ($13.5 K) Midstream O&G emissions analysis – Memo on difficulty in calculating controls on Midstream O&G sources ($4K) – Other? ($TBD) 2020 Controls analysis on State/EPA-provided O&G emissions ($TBD) – State and EPA emissions experts provide us with specific controls to apply on the grown 2020 sources that they provided 2011 O&G emissions for

12 Additional CAMx Modeling $30-40k left for additional sensitivity modeling Ideas – O&G diagnostic modeling Ozone source apportionment tagging O&G sub-sectors – Engines, fugitives, tanks, heaters/dehydrators… – Controllable vs. un-controllable sources – Up-stream vs mid-stream – Others? DDM modeling to evaluate the sensitivity of regional ozone to changes in different O&G sub-sectors Others? – Brute force anthropogenic NOx or VOC perturbations – Others?