Inventory of U.S.GHG Emissions and Sinks UNFCCC Reporting Requirements and IPCC Methodological Guidance Purpose: Background on GHG Inventory and process: UNFCCC and IPCC requirements Overview of the AFOLU estimates Overview of ongoing improvements and planned Goal is to be able to capture the activities on the ground including being sensitive enough to capture mitigation efforts such as the Building Block efforts that USDA is overseeing. This is key because in order for these mitigation effort to be counted in terms of meeting international pledges made by the administration—they have to be in here. C-AGG Meeting Washington, DC—November 9-10, 2015 Tom Wirth US EPA—Climate Change Division

National GHG Inventory Produced annually—due by April 15 Accounts for anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals over time: 1990 Present Five methodological chapters Energy Industrial Processes and Product Use Waste Agriculture Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Seven primary gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3

National GHG Inventory Schedule Kick-off Meeting (June) Collect Data and Emissions Factors (Summer) Prepare Initial Estimates (Fall) Develop Draft Report (October) QA/QC of Draft Report (November) Expert Review Phase (December) Address Comments (December-January) Public Review Phase (February) Finalize Document, Prepare CRF Tables (March) Submit to UNFCCC (April 15)

Agriculture and LULUCF Census of Agriculture NASS FIA NRI NLCD APHIS MODIS CTIC Ag. Waste Mg. Hnbk.

Inventory Coordinator US GHG Inventory Team Leif Hockstad Inventory Coordinator AFOLU Tom Wirth Industrial Processes Mausami Desai Debbie Ottinger Dave Godwin ODSs F-gases Waste Rachel Schmeltz Energy Amy Bunker Susan Burke Cate Hight Melissa Weitz Shah A. Choudhury (DOD) Bunker Fuels Natural Gas and Petroleum Coal Mining Mobile Fossil Fuel Combustion Fossil Fuel Combustion

Inventory Team for Agriculture and LULUCF (AFOLU) Tom Wirth (EPA) AFOLU Lead Enteric & Manure Management ERG & Universities -Data/models linked -VS/Nxe outputs used in Soil C/Soil N2O Cropland/Grassland, Soil C, Soil N2O, Rice CH4, FBAR CSU & ARS -AD and methods input to DayCent -Ensures consistency Forestland, Forest C, HWP, Fire, Soil N2O US Forest Service -Linked with CSU for consistency -LU/LUC (cropland/grassland) Settlements, Soil N2O, Urban Trees, LFYTFS CSU & ERG CSU: Soil N2O ERG: Urban Trees, LFYTFS Wetlands, Peatlands, Coastal Wetlands ERG & NOAA ERG: Peatlands NOAA: Coastal Wetlands

IPCC Guidelines and UNFCCC Reporting for National GHG Inventories Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) UNFCCC Reporting Agriculture Enteric Fermentation (CH4) Manure Mgt. (CH4 and N2O) Agric. Soil Mgt. (N2O) Rice (CH4) FBAR (CH4 and N2O) LULUCF (36 LU/LUC Categories) Forestland & LCF Cropland & LCC Grassland & LCG Wetlands & LCW Settlements & LCS Other Land & LCO Five C Pools & Non-CO2 Gases

GHG Emissions and Removals in AFOLU

IPCC Guidance for AFOLU Provides methods for all emissions and removals from Agriculture and LULUCF Required for UNFCCC reporting in 2015 New/updated guidance for wetlands Gain experience in use of Supplement and report in 2017

IPCC Tiered Methodologies For each source/sink category methods are provided at three tier levels: Tier 1– Designed to use readily available national or international statistics (e.g., FAO) with default emission factors. Any country can apply. Tier 2– Uses similar approach as Tier 1, but with country-specific factors or further disaggregation Tier 3—Models, measurement or country-specific approach Increasing Methodological Complexity and Accuracy The Tier used is driven by significance of the flux and availability of data

Inventory Quality Indicators and Good Practice Guidance Result Credible Reliable Useful Inventory Assessed for Uncertainties Subject to QA/QC Efficient use of resources Uncertainties reduced over time TCCCA Transparent Consistent Complete Comparable Accurate …ensure neither over nor underestimates so far as can be judged and with uncertainties reduced as far as practicable

NGHGI Structure for All Sources/Sinks Overview Description of source/sink—cause of emission/removal Trends/drivers Emissions/removals in MMT CO2 eq. and kilotons of gas Estimation methodology and activity data Uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation for a 95% confidence interval with lower and upper bounds around the central estimate Time series consistency QA/QC and verification Recalculations Discussion Planned Improvements

Domestic and International Review Processes Annual Domestic Reviews Expert and Public reviews Thirty days each Not formal, as with regulatory review Annual UNFCCC Reviews Centralized review In-Country review Annual review report developed Inventory team must respond to issues identified in the report

Managed Land Complete representation of the land base, categorized into 6 IPCC LUCs Combine NRI, FIA, NLCD Separate into managed and unmanaged land Apply managed land definition Under IPCC Guidance “managed” land is a proxy for anthropogenic emissions Identify the land use conversions between lands Lands remain in conversion category for 20 years For all 36 LU/LUC categories estimate C stock changes by pool: Above/below-ground biomass Dead wood and litter Soil organic matter Non-CO2 emissions

US Managed Land Base (1,000s ha’s) Includes all 50 states Excludes US Territories NRI data only goes through 2007 C stock changes not estimated for entire managed land base: Interior AK HI Federal Grasslands

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks by Sector: 1990-2013 Emissions grew 4.7% from 1990-2012 Downward trend since 2007 CO2 (83%), CH4 (9%), N2O (6%) and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (2%)

2013 AFOLU Emissions (MMT CO2 eq.)

2013 AFOLU Removals (MMT CO2 eq.)

Improvements for 2016 NGHGI Updated Forest Carbon Accounting Framework—LU/LUC and attribution Federal grasslands—Soil C stock changes using IPCC Tier 2 approach Rice CH4 estimated using DAYCENT, except for organic soils. Updates previous approach based on EFs developed from highly variable measurement data. Update NRI data through 2010 (current NRI data in the inventory only runs through 2007) Preliminary estimates for coastal wetlands (i.e., tidal marsh, seagrass meadows and mangroves) Adopt new FCAF to improve attribution of land use, land-use change, and attribute disturbances (e.g., harvest, fire, storm) across inventory time series Account for C stock changes in soils on federal grasslands from land use and land-use conversion using IPCC Tier 2 approach and BLM data on rangeland condition Utilize the DAYCENT model to estimate CH4 emissions from rice cultivation. Updates previous approach based on EFs developed from highly variable measurement data. Improves consistency across croplands Update NRI data through 2010 (current NRI data in the inventory only runs through 2007) Update the time series for the Enhanced Vegetation Index through 2010 to improve the ability to estimate production and C inputs to agricultural soils Replace the weather data that had been based on a 32 km grid from NARR with weather data on a 4km grid from PRISM. Improves the resolution for temperature and precipitation in the model Update the soils data with latest SSURGO database Provide preliminary estimates of C stock changes and non-CO2 emissions from coastal wetlands (i.e., tidal marsh, seagrass meadows and mangroves)

Planned Improvements for NGHGI Reconciliation of the FIA, NRI and NLCD to improve the representation of land base and associated land use transfers Incorporate CEAP data for cropland/grassland—tillage, fertilization, crop rotation, residue management and more. Incorporate the 2011-2012 NRI land use and management data—initiate process of biennial updates Grasslands: Fires (CH4 and N2O), and stock changes from non-soil C stocks Integrate residue burning emissions (CH4 and N2O) into DAYCENT. Capture changes in C and N inputs to the soil as a result of these burning events—impact soil C/N2O Include C stock changes from interior Alaska forest lands and grasslands Incorporate additional guidance from IPCC Wetlands Supplement e.g., drained organic soils Improve integration of enteric and manure management emissions by combining models Reconciliation of the FIA, NRI and NLCD to improve the representation of land base and associated land use transfers Incorporate CEAP data for cropland/grassland—tillage , fertilization, residue management and more. Subset of NRI points that can be imputed to cover much of US land base Incorporate the 2011-2012 NRI land use and management data—initiate process of biennial updates Include CH4 and N2O emissions from fires on all grasslands. Integrate into the as part of the DAYCENT modeling framework to ensure the changes in C and N inputs to the soil as a result of fires are reflected in the soil C and soil N2O emission estimates. Improve estimates of CH4/N2O from residue burning through use of spatially explicit data and integration into the DAYCENT modelling framework allowing the NGHGI to capture changes in C and N inputs to the soil as a result of these burning events Account for non-soil C pools (e.g., above-/below-ground biomass) on grasslands Include C stock changes from interior Alaska forest lands and grasslands Incorporate new guidance from IPCC Wetlands Supplement e.g., drained organic soils Improve integration of enteric and manure management emissions by combining models

To download a copy of the Inventory of U. S To download a copy of the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2013, visit: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html Thanks for listening! Tom Wirth US EPA Climate Change Division GHG Inventory Coordinator--AFOLU (202) 343-9313 Wirth.tom@epa.gov