1. Forest Carbon Budgets, with examples, mainly with a US temperate forest perspective Linda S. Heath USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station Durham, NH, USA Many others: Jim Smith, Ken Skog, Rich Birdsey, FIA, etc.

2. Some global forest categories – a recent view BiomeArea (million km2) Per area C change (t C/ha/yr) Total C pool Tropical17.50.37553 Boreal13.70.34395 Temperate10.40.34292 Savannas/ grassld 27.60.14326 Source: Grace, 2004. Journal of Ecology 92:189-202.

3. Standards Standard, but relevant, definitions/protocols are important -- carbon pools -- vegetation types -- land use -- land cover -- uncertainty -- and others

4. Basic estimation of stocks and stock changes of forest C if you have “field” inventory data Carbon stock = Carbon/Area x Area (t ha) C change = C stock at time 2 minus C stock at time 1. Divide by length of period = carbon/year (t/ha/yr) Measured carbon stocks do not include harvests/disturbance in the sense the trees are no longer there. This amount must be added back in to the C estimate.

5. Another basic approach if you have field data Carbon change = Carbon change/Area x Area (t/ha/yr) where carbon change may equal, for instance, biomass growth or soil respiration.

6. Outline/Some main points Carbon estimates needed for a number of reasons by decisionmakers at various scales Public involvement Preferable if estimates are consistent, transparent, verifiable, validated Methods depend heavily on traditional forest inventory/modeling system for projections May need long-term projections (50 yr), decadal trends rather than precise annual estimates

7. Current Approach for US Forest Carbon Budget – Part 1 We use USDA Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) inventory data coupled with a modeling approach. Data from many field plots, collected by FIA beginning in 1950s. Area data from remote sensing. Several other relevant databases available.

8. Current Approach for US Forest Carbon Budget – Part 2 Where FIA data are limited, develop/adopt models such as equations to estimate non-tree carbon, to a complex modeling system to track projections of C Model tracks carbon through harvested wood products (Skog and Nicholson 1998). Relies on data from US Dept of Commerce, other factors.

9. Large-scale field inventories include remote sensing for area estimation For example, sample “points” located systematically over the “effective area” and land cover determined at the “point”

10. FIA Program Inventory Evolution In recent past, FIA periodically (5-14 years) measured all plots in a state in a 1-2 year timeframe. FIA recently adopted annualized inventory, with a subset of plots measured throughout the state each year. (5-7 years). Soil and litter layer carbon measured on subset of plots in new system.

11. National GHG reporting to UNFCCC Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Sinks Inventories (1990-present) (US Environmental Protection Agency) - All sectors, we do forest estimates Every 5 years, summary national communication -State Dept. Public involvement

12. US forest C nonsoil stock change, 2003 DRAFT: Smith and Heath for 2005 EPA GHG Inventory 12% of total U.S. CO 2 emissions

13. Net C sequestration, Land Use Change and Forestry Source: EPA (2003), includes all effects. All are net sinks. No non-CO2

14. Other Nat’l GHG inventory reports Energy Information Administration (annual) USDA (first report 2003) INCLUDES DETAIL AT STATE- LEVEL

15. Global Forest Assessment FAO Estimates for 1990, 2000, 2005 Consistent with volumes, other forest attributes

16. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (1994-1996) Reference, Workbook, Reporting IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (2001-2003) IPCC Revision Guidelines (2004-2006) ? volumes. AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use  Nations need to be consistent with the methodology in the guidelines Conform to Everimproving International Reporting Guidelines

17. Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators of Sustainability Criterion 5: Forest contribution to global carbon cycles Forest ecosystem C stocks & biomass pools (area x C/area) Forest C stock change Carbon in harvested wood products See National Report on Sustainable Forests—2003. FS-766

18. Conterminous US Forest C pools (Mt) Indicator 26

19. Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases, US (project level) Established by Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 ANY US-related activity that reduces emissions of GHGs or increases C fixation can be reported Long and short reporting form, downloadable from web site Guidelines currently being updated Administered by DOE’s Energy Information Administration Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/frntvrgg.html

20. Carbon OnLine Estimation web tool, (beta)

21. Forest sector modeling system for projections of C in managed U.S. forests, ca. 2000 TAMM – Timber Markets (Haynes/Adams) ATLAS – Timber Inventory (Mills) AREA (Alig) NAPAP – Paper Markets (Ince) TEM – Productivity/climate link (Joyce/McGuire) FORCARB2 – Carbon (Heath/Smith) WOODCARB – C in HWP (Skog/Nicholson)

22. Projection modeling system – Forest

23. Projections – Economic side

24. Alternative-to-base scenario comparisons for US forest carbon, ca. 1995

25. Managed forest lands, US, 2008-2012 Projected avg. annual C stock change C taken up by trees in managed forests 381.9 C released by harvesting trees-276.0 Net C taken up in Soil52.4 Net C taken up in Floor12.8 Net C taken up in Understory0.7 Net C accrued in live biomass & soil 171.8 C increase in logging residue26.1 C in products in use39.1 C in products in landfills51.3 C stored in products & landfills90.4 Net C removals related to managed forests 288 +/- 15% Mt/yr LULUCF, Submission by State Department, 2000

26. A summary of things to consider Consistent definitions (land uses, vegetation) Scale issues (need overall inventory, but track projects) Boundaries create holes or double counting (urban forests, land use change) Boundaries are needed for activity implementation (such as political level like State) Identify anthropogenic effects (such as intended or unintended enhanced or reduced growth vs growth) Transparency, verification, accuracy, precision, cost

28. Forest Carbon Components - Definitions Down dead wood Aboveground biomass = Live trees + understory Standing dead trees Soil organic matter (1m) Litter (Forest floor) Belowground biomass

29. PRODUCTS IN USE Lumber Plywood Other panels Solid wood Paper Recycled Paper LANDFILLS Landfill wood Landfill paper EMISSIONS Waste wood, decayed or burned with no energy captured Decay of products & landfills BURNED FOR ENERGY Products sent to landfills, recycling, emissions Categories of fates of harvested wood

30. Forest carbon stock trends, 1953-2050 Business as usual scenario projection, Haynes and others.

31. Contribution of forest products, Indicator 28 *Includes net imports Source: Skog and Nicholson, 1998

32. Beginning year of annualized FIA data Year no data 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Compiled from FIA region web sites

33. Forest floor carbon accumulation, decay, and total, Southern pines: modeling approach for older FIA data with missing pools 0 10 20 30 0255075 Years Carbon mass density (Mg/ha) Mixed or unknown age SOURCE: Smith and Heath, 2002 accumulation TOTAL decomposition

34. Carbon OnLine Estimation web tool, (beta)

35. Projection modeling system – Forest

36. Projections – Economic side